On Thursday, gold prices had clearly passed the support of a long term ascending pattern. It is signalling that the metal's price will decline.
If the daily chart gets looked at, it can be observed that the commodity price has no support, as low as the monthly P
The Federal Reserve releases US FOMC Meeting Minutes where fed officials provide in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.
The meeting summary stated, "With an increase in the target range at this meeting, the federal funds rate would be at or close to the lower end of the range of estimates of the longer-run neutral interest rate, and participants expressed that recent developments, including the volatility in financial markets and the increased concerns about global growth, made the appropriate extent and timing of future policy firming less clear than earlier."
No influence on Gold from macro releases this week
On Thursday, main attention of fundamental event traders will be on the ECB Rate Announcement at 12:45 GMT. The volatility on the EUR charts usually increases during the ECB Press Conference, which will start at 13:30 GMT.Meanwhile, oil traders will most likely catch a one percent move at 15:30 GMT. The data release has been providing moves of more than one percent during the last month and a half.
XAU/USD short term forecast
On Thursday morning, the yellow metal was trading below the 55-hour and the 100-hour simple moving averages at the 1,280.06 mark.
In regards to the near term future, most likely, the 200-hour simple moving average will continue retracing the rate to the 1,274.00 level. It is expected, that the gold will reach the monthly pivot point at 1,262.88 in a couple of trading sessions.
On the other hand, any fundamental news could push the yellow metal to appreciate against the US Dollar to stay at the 1,280.00 level!
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart it can be observed that the commodity price has retreated from making attempts at passing the upper trend line of a dominant descending channel pattern.The metal is set to head lower and reveal a descending pattern in the upcoming weeks.
However, note that the Federal Reserve announcements next week might still weaken the US Dollar and push the XAU/USD pair up to the 1,290.00 level where the upper trend line of the most dominant pattern will be located at the time.
Daily Chart
Short sentiment decreases
Previously, for more than a week the Swiss Foreign Exchange open positions were short in 57% of all cases. The sentiment decreased to 55% on Thursday.
In the meantime, trader pending orders in the 1000-base point range were no longer set to sell. The pending commands were neutral on Thursday.
As stated before, traders are shorting a larger scale decline. The traders had opened their short positions already previously.
Meanwhile, note that all the traders, which wanted to short the metal have already done so. It is indicated by the neutral pending orders.