- SWFX market sentiment is 69% bullish
- Pending orders in the 1000-pip range are set to sell in 51%% of cases
- Gold tests 1,250.00 on Tuesday
On Tuesday the yellow metal's price was testing the resistance provided by the 1,250.00 mark. Moreover, the 1,250.00 level was being strengthened by the upper trend line of the ascending channel pattern.
Latest Fundamental Event
The oil price has depreciated after the US Crude Oil Inventories data release on Wednesday at 15:30 GMT. The one-minute candle lost 26 pips, or 0.50% right after the data release. In the next minutes, the rate was trading at the 52.40 level against the US Dollar.
The Energy Information Administration released the US Crude Inventories data that came out better-than-expected of negative 1.2M, compare to forecasted negative 3.0M.
Andrew Lipow, the President of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston said, "The market is disappointed that the EIA did not confirm the 10 million-barrel crude oil inventory draw we saw in the API statistics yesterday and as a result the crude oil price has come off,".
Busy second half of the week for data traders
Until Wednesday there are no notable data releases scheduled to occur that might impact any of the major pairs or gold.On Wednesday, the macroeconomic data releases will start at 09:30 GMT with the UK Consumer Price Index. The event is expected to cause at least a 20 base point move.
On the same day at 13:30 GMT the Canadian will publish the Consumer Price Index data sets. During the last half a year the data release has caused fluctuations of at least 40 pips.
Afterwards at 19:00 GMT the event of the week will take place. Namely, the FOMC Statement and the Federal Funds Rate will be published. The Federal Reserve is expected to hike the US central banks interest rate to 2.5% from 2.25%.
In theory the event is expected to cause a US Dollar surge, which would beat the top pairs downwards. This year the interest rate hikes have caused moves of at least 40 base points.
On Thursday, all attention will be paid to events in the UK. Namely, at 09:30 GMT the UK Retail Sales are expected to cause a move from 10 to 40 pips.
Afterwards, the Bank of England will announce their rate decision. The event has caused moves from 26 to 97 pips since May 2018.
On Friday the data releases will continue. During the morning hours, namely, at 09:30 GMT the UK Current Account will be published. This event causes moves from 15 to 45 pips.
The week's data will end at 13:30 GMT. At that time the Canadian Retail Sales and GDP data will be published. Simultaneously the US Durable Goods data sets and Final GDP will be released.
The last event is too complex to explain it shortly. Instead, state your questions at the weekly Monday's economic calendar stream at 12:00 GMT.
The above mentioned data release will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics. The event can be watched on our YouTube channel.
XAU/USD short term forecast
During Tuesday's morning hours, the yellow metal was trading above the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1,248.70 mark.
Most likely, the 38.20% Fibo will push the rate to trade upwards to reach the 1,252.00 level during the trading session. Moreover, the 100-hour and the 200-hour simple moving averages will also support the rate during the day.
On the other side, the gold could be resisted by the upper boundary of the freshly drawn pattern line at the 1,250 mark to push the rate to trade sideways at the 1,246.00 level.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart the commodity price is preparing to test the resistance of the 200-day simple moving average at the 1,253.80 level.Meanwhile, on Tuesday the commodity price was being supported by the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1,245.07.
Daily Chart
Neutral set up trader orders
On Monday 74% of traders were long. By the middle of Tuesday only 69% of traders were long.
In the meantime, trader pending orders in the 1000-base point range had become almost neutral, as 51% of trader set up orders in that range were set to sell.
Previously we stated – "Short term traders have longed the recent rebound and are prepared to take profit and close their positions."
This has taken place, as it can be clearly seen by the reduced long position proportion and the absence of previous sell orders.