- SWFX market sentiment is 71% bullish
- Pending orders in the 1000-pip range are set to buy in 51% of cases
- One release this week will impact gold prices
Main new information about gold is that it has revealed a medium scale descending pattern. In this pattern gold prices are expected to decline until it finds additional support to resume its surge. That could take until the end of the month.
Latest Fundamental Event
The Energy Information Administration released the US Crude Inventories data that came out lower-than-expected of 4.9M, compare to forecasted 2.5M.
On November 21, US President Donald Trump posted on his Twitter account: "Oil prices getting lower. Great! Like a big Tax Cut for America and the World. Enjoy! Thank you to Saudi Arabia, but let's go lower!"
Wait for the US GDP on Wednesday
This week is the last one of the month. That means that it is bound to be empty in regards to macroeconomic data releases.First notable data release will occur this week on Wednesday. The US Preliminary GDP data will be published at 13:30 GMT. This data release is considered to be the most important among macroeconomic statistics. Although, it causes an increase of volatility around 10 to 20 base points.
On Wednesday, at 15:30 GMT the weekly US Crude Oil Inventories will be published and cause a bounce in oil prices.
On Thursday, the only notable macroeconomic scheduled event, but not a data release, will be the FOMC Meeting Minutes release at 19:00 GMT.
Last, but most important for data release traders, will be the Canadian GDP data release at 13:30 GMT. This event is expected to cause the most volatility that a data release can cause. Although, it will be only observable on Canadian Dollar pairs.
All of these events will be covered live by Dukascopy Analytics. The live coverages will begin ten minutes before the event. They can be watched on the Dukascopy Webinars platform and the YouTube channel.
XAU/USD short term forecast
On Monday, Dukascopy Analysts spotted a channel down pattern on the hourly chart of the yellow metal. This pattern represents the rate's expected decline until new year. The decline should occur due to the metal starting a medium term consolidation after the recent gains of almost 30 USD.
Note that the pattern still needs to fully confirm itself. Namely, the commodity price has to pass the support levels of the 61.80% Fibonacci at 1,225.60 and 55-hour simple moving average at 1,225.95.
On the other hand, the pattern might be false. If its upper trend line near 1,228.00 gets broken, the metal will have the range up to the 1,240.00 level free from any technical resistance levels.
Hourly Chart
Previously, on the daily chart it was already expected that a medium scale descending pattern will reveal itself. However, there is something more important to pay attention on the daily chart.
The 55 and 100-day simple moving averages have met at the monthly pivot point at 1,213.85. The meeting of these SMAs does not only indicate that there is additional support upcoming from the 55-day SMA, but also a cross of shorter simple moving average of a longer one is considered as a buy signal.
Daily Chart
Sentiment is unchanged on Monday
Since Thursday, traders remain 72% long on the yellow metal. This is considered as a neutral sentiment for gold, as there are many holders holding long positions.
Previously, most trader set up orders were set to buy in the 1000-base point range. They were expecting a buy signal in the form of breaking a resistance level or a start of a surge. As that did not occur, those orders are gone.
On Monday, 52% of orders were set to buy, which is clearly indicating that the short term retail sector has become neutral.