- SWFX market sentiment is 75% bullish
- Pending orders in the 1000-pip range are neutral
- No more data this week
The surge of the yellow metal has decreased its volatility range and in the meantime crossed the resistance of the 200-hour simple moving average at 1,215.86. The passing of the resistance was expected and just strengthens the assumption that the commodity price is set to surge in the medium and long term.
Latest Fundamental Event
The Energy Information Administration released the US Crude Inventories data that came out lower-than-expected of 10.3M, compare to forecasted 2.9M.
"The Saudis feel they were completely snookered by Trump. They did everything to raise supplies assuming Washington would push for very harsh Iranian sanctions. And they didn't get any heads up from the U.S. that Iran will get softer sanctions," said one senior source briefed on Saudi energy policies.
No more data this week
No more notable data will be published this week. Macroeconomic data traders will wait for Monday.For more in-depth analysis of this week's fundamental economic events watch the weekly Monday's Poking the Economic Calendar webinar, which is live each Monday at 12:00 both on Dukascopy telefision and YouTube.
XAU/USD short term forecast
In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the gold will break the resistance of the 200-hour simple moving average at the 1,213.29 mark to trade at the 1,220.00 level.
Besides, the 55-hour simple moving average will try to catch up the yellow metal to give additional support for the gold during the trading session on Friday.
Hourly Chart
It was stated before that, if the commodity price passes the resistance levels at 1,214.00 mark the price will surge. The event has taken place. However, the market will slow down the surge at each psychological level. Meaning, that round numbers will pause the surge.
For example, on Friday the 1,220.00 mark stopped the surge of the commodity price. Besides that, the 1,245.00 mark is set to be reached in the upcoming weeks.
Daily Chart
Long positions increase
On Friday, 75% of open gold positions were long. Previously, 71% of traders were long on the yellow metal.
Meanwhile, in the 1000 base point range trader set up orders were neutral. Previously, 61% of orders were set to buy.
It can be clearly seen that traders have bought gold during the last twenty four hours. Namely, due to the various signals indicating at an upcoming long term surge.