- SWFX market sentiment is 74% bullish
- Pending orders in the 1000-pip range are set to buy in 64% of all cases
- US data might impact gold prices
The yellow metal reached the 1,240.00 mark. The move occurred by simultaneously piercing the upper trend line of a dominant ascending pattern.
Latest Fundamental Event
Oil price decreased after the US Crude Oil Inventories data release on Wednesday at 14:30 GMT. The one-minute candle lost 68 pips, or 0.96% right after the data release. In the next minutes the rate was trading at the 70.10 level.
The Energy Information Administration released the US Crude Inventories data that came out lower-than-expected of 6.5M, compared to forecasted 1.6M
"A tick higher in refining activity and a drop in production due to hurricane activity in the Gulf was not enough to halt a fourth consecutive climb in (inventories)- and a solid one at that," said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData in Louisville, Kentucky.
US data will impact gold at the end of the week
Two data releases in the US might impact the price of the yellow metal through the US Dollar.First note that the US Durable Goods orders will be published at 12:30 GMT on Thursday.
The data release with the biggest impact will be on Friday. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the Advance GDP q/q and the Advance GDP Price Index q/q at 12:30 GMT.
XAU/USD short term forecast
In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the gold will surge towards the upper boundary of the dominant ascending pattern line at 1,238.00 mark due to the support of the simple moving averages.
However, the yellow metal could break the support of the simple moving averages below 1,230.00 mark, if the US Dollar will surge during the trading session.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart it can be observed that the long term ascending channel is holding.
In addition, note that the 100-day simple moving average, which was pressuring the commodity price lower during the last week, has been left below the price.
Daily Chart
More traders go long on gold
Traders are 74% long on gold. On Tuesday, 70% of Dukascopy traders were long. This means that during the recent surge more traders have bought the metal and chased the surge.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders are still mostly set up to buy more gold. 70% of all orders are set to buy.
It seems that Duakscopy retail traders and gold holders still intend to buy more gold, as they expect it to gain even more value.