- SWFX market sentiment is 74% bullish
- 65% of pending orders in 1000-pip range are set to BUY Gold
- US Retail Sales data at 12:30 GMT
Gold reveals ascending pattern before surging to 1,215. Moreover, the commodity price is set to be supported by various simple moving averages.
Oil prices have decreased after the US Crude Oil Inventories data release on Wednesday at 14:30 GMT. The one-minute candle lost 22 pips or 0.31% after which, the rate surged upwards to trade at the 70.80 level.
The Energy Information Administration released the US Crude Levels data that came out lower-than-expected of negative 5.3M, compare to forecasted negative 1.3M.
The Dukascopy analysts were not expecting the price drop of negative 22 pips or 0.31% at the release time. The crew predicted the price surge at the release time, but the expectations were not fulfilled this time.
The released number is putting stockpiles 3% below their five-year average for the US Crude Oil Inventory according to the Energy Information Administration.
US Retail Sales at 12:30 GMT
The week's macroeconomic data releases will end at 12:30 GMT. At that time the US Retail Sales will be published.
The data release will be covered by the Dukascopy Analytics team on the bank's live webinar platform. The event will start at 12:20 GMT.
XAU/USD short term forecast
In regards to the near term future, the commodity price is set to be guided by a junior ascending channel pattern up to the 1,215.00 mark. At that level gold will meet with the resistance of a 61.68% Fibonacci retracement level.
Meanwhile, on Friday it was impossible to forecast, how high the surge will go, as next week fresh weekly pivot points might provide additional resistance.
Hourly Chart
The recent surge has provided the opportunity to use the low levels for the drawing of a new ascending channel pattern. Although, note that fundamental events might once more push the yellow metal prices in a way that smashes technical chart patterns.
In addition, note that there are larger scale resistance levels on the chart. For example, the surge recently was stopped by the 1,212.70 level, where a 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level is located at. Moreover, the 55-day simple moving average was approaching the commodity price near the 1,215.70 level.
Daily Chart
Markets remain long on gold
Swiss traders remained long on gold, as 74% of trader open positions were long on Friday.
Meanwhile, most trader set up pending orders are set to buy the metal by closing short positions or opening additional long positions. Namely, 65% of all trader set up orders are set to buy the metal under various conditions.
Meanwhile, at other marketplaces long term sentiment remains persistent and has even slightly increased. At OANDA 76% of traders are long. Likewise, SAXO Bank traders were 72% long on the yellow metal's price.