As expected, the EUR/UDS has reached the 1.1350 level, which was passed on Monday.
In the near future the pair is expected to reach the technical resistance of the monthly pivot point at 1.1365. If this level is passed, the weekly R1 at 1.1373 will provide resistance to the currency exchange rate.
The European Single Currency appreciated against the US Dollar, following the US CPI and Core CPI release on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate gained 13 pips or 0.12% during a minute, right after the release. The European Single Currency kept going upwards after the data release to continue trading at the 1.1275 area against the US Dollar.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released US CPI data that came out in line with expectations of 0.2%. Note, that the US Core CPI was released at the same time with the US CPI.
According to analysts at TD Securities: "Price pressures will benefit higher food and gasoline prices and another solid 0.2% increase in core CPI, leaving the latter unchanged at 2.2% y/y. There is a risk for a slight deceleration in the shelter, but we expect strength elsewhere, including tariff-related categories, medical care and airfares."
Busy week for fundamental events
This week will be busy for fundamental announcement traders. Both the central banks and various statistics offices are set to make various announcements.The data releases will start on Tuesday. At 09:30 GMT the UK Average Earnings and Unemployment Rate will be published. The data sets are set to be published in the background of another Brexit vote. Read about that in the articles section.
On Wednesday, at 09:30 GMT the UK Consumer Price Index will be released. This data release also is expected to be ignored by the markets due to the Brexit politics.
On the same day, at 18:00 GMT the Federal Reserve will publish their FOMC Statement, Economic Projections and the Federal Funds Rate. Moreover, the event will be followed by the FOMC Press Conference.
This event is above all else during this week, as the FOMC sets the value of the US Dollar. In general, the rest of the world's central banks just adapt to the Federal Reserve.
On Thursday, all attention will be on the UK events. At 09:30 GMT the UK Retail Sales will be published. Afterwards, at 12:00 GMT the Bank of England will announce their official Bank Rate and Monetary Policy Summary. The BoE in general is expected to react to the recent Brexit developments and the Federal Reserve.
On Friday, there will be two notable data releases. At 08:30 GMT the German Markit PMIs will be released. They are expected to cause a significant impact on the EUR pairs.
The last event of the week will be the Canadian CPI and Core Retail Sales release at 12:30 GMT.
For more information watch this week's economic calendar analysis stream.
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
During Friday's trading session, the European Single Currency was supported by the 55-hour simple moving average to trade sideways at 1.1320. On Monday morning, the rate was located at the 1.1344 mark.In regards to the near-term future, it is expected that the European Single Currency will appreciate against the US Dollar to break the monthly pivot point at the 1.1364 mark. Besides, most likely, the rate will end the trading session at the 1.1360 level.
On the other hand, the resistance level of the monthly pivot point at the 1.1364 mark could retrace the rate to the 1.1340 level.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart the rate is trading in a long term descending channel pattern.
The rate is about to touch the upper trend line of the pattern and begin a decline, if the resistance holds.
The trend line is not standing as a single technical resistance levels. It is strengthened by the 55 and 100-day simple moving averages and the monthly pivot point. This combination at 1.1365 is most likely going to hold.
Daily chart
The total open position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange remains mostly short. On Monday, 73% of the open volume was shorting the EUR/USD.
In addition, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range were also short. Namely, 55% of pending orders were set to sell.
In general, a majority of traders are either already short on EUR/USD or have set up pending sell orders that would open short positions as a decline begins.