- 61% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are to SELL the Sterling
- SWFX market sentiment is 62% bullish (+4%)
- Upcoming fundamental events: UK Manufacturing Production m/m, Goods Trade Balance, BOE Inflation Report, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, BOE Monetary Policy Summary, BOE Official Bank Rate, UK Asset Purchase Facility, MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes, US CPI m/m, US Core CPI m/m
Fundamental events should guide the GBP/USD exchange rate today.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released two data simultaneously, where Producer Price Index data came out lower-than-expected of 0.10%, but Producers Price Index Core data came out as expected of 0.20% for the month of April.
Wholesale inflation slowdown in the US was weighed down by declining prices in clothing, health and beauty and accommodation services.
Busy day for Pound
This session is full with data releases from the United Kingdom. The day will start with the British Manufacturing Production and Goods Trade Balance for the month of March at 0830GMT. Subsequently, the Bank of England is set to release the Inflation Report, Monetary Policy Summary, MPC Official Bank Rate and its votes, as well as Asset Purchase Facility and Asset Purchase Facility votes at 1100GMT.
Meanwhile, the US Bureau of Labour Statistics is to release the Consumer Price Index and the Core Consumer Price Index for April at 1230GMT.
Pound awaits fundamentals
Despite generally bearish indicators, the Sterling eventually gathered the necessary upside momentum to dash through the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and reach the weekly PP at 1.36 on Wednesday.In a longer perspective, the pair's movement during the past two weeks has been stranded in a triangle-like formation. In case its upper boundary, likewise reinforced by the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP, is surpassed, a subsequent surge up to the breached senior channel at 1.37 is likely to follow.
In terms of today, the pair is expected to fluctuate in between all three SMAs prior to the UK Monetary Policy Summary today at 1100GMT. In the event of a negative surprise, the Sterling should target either the bottom triangle line or the weekly S1 at 1.3500 and 1.3417, respectively.
Hourly chart
Strong downside risks have been pushing the GBP/USD exchange rate considerably lower for the second consecutive week. As a result, the pair had reached the 200-day SMA near 1.3530 by Thursday morning and remained there for the following trading session.
Technical indicators on the daily time-frame are located in the overbought territory. Thus, the aforementioned moving average might mark a reversal point from which the Pound tries to move towards the 1.40 mark this week.
Daily Chart
The bullish SWFX market sentiment has increased to 62% of open positions being long today (+4%). Meanwhile, 65% of pending orders remain to sell the Pound (+7%).
The market sentiment of OANDA traders is strongly bullish, as 66% of them are holding long positions (+6%). Saxo Bank clients share the same sentiment with 56% long positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility