GBP/USD slides below 1.57

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
"Pending orders in 100-pip range are strongly bearish with 68% of them set to sell. Therefore, a decrease in value is likely, the closest support is placed at 1.5585/67 and it is represented by this year's low and weekly S1. Meanwhile, an advance remains a possibility, while for that purpose the closest resistance is the weekly pivot point that is located at 1.5697."

© Dukascopy Bank SA
The British Pound failed to extend its bullish momentum against the US Dollar into Tuesday as it dropped 0.59%, after climbing 0.5% on Monday. The main catalyst for the Pound's drop was the disappointing construction PMI figure that was released yesterday. Growth continued to ease in the British construction sector, with the corresponding reading of activity coming in at the weakest level in more than a year and clouding the country's economic outlook.

Nevertheless, business activity in the construction sector, which makes up around 6.3% of the nation's total GDP, remained firmly above the 50-mark threshold, which separates contraction from expansion, for the 19th straight month in November. Markit/CIPS construction PMI fell to 59.4, compared to October's reading of 61.4 and against forecasts of 61.0. All three areas of construction recorded softer rates of activity growth in November, led by a slowdown in civil engineering, with home building still remaining the strongest performing area of activity in November, ahead of commercial construction.

Then again US currency favored from positive remarks on the nation's economy. The Fed officials become more and more confident in the US economy that takes them closer to enter a critical phase in its seven-year combat with the financial crisis by lifting interest rates. However, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer reiterated the view that the timing of the first rate hike still depends on broader economic data. If the labour market continues to improve and there are some signs of inflation starting to rise, then policy makers will, consequently, normalize the Fed's monetary policy by increasing interest rates, Fischer said.






Many important data to be released

Today, on Wednesday, US ADP non-farm employment change data will be released and that will give as an insight about what to wait on Friday, when the government will release the official data, which is considered to be one of the most important monthly data if not the most important. Moreover, UK's services PMI and Autumn forecast sentiment will see the daylight today.
© Dukascopy Bank SA

GBP/USD tests upper trend-line

Already for more than a month GBP/USD is testing the strength of the down-trend, especially its upper trend- line, that started to take its shape at July, when the pair reached a six-year high at 1.7193. The pair's trading range is becoming narrower and that could potentially provoke a break-out. Since the Pound has reached this year's low just recently, we expect a bullish break-out to be the case; however, there still is a downside risk of the pair falling lower, if it fails to breach the monthly S1 at 1.5833.

Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

After a dive beneath the weekly PP at 1.5697, even the cluster of SMAs did not help to hold the pair near the 1.57 mark. Now the pair is fluctuating close to this year's low that was reached at the very beginning of December at 1.5585. We think that the likelihood of the currency couple approaching this year's low has increased since yesterday and it the bearish technicals only strengthen the possibility of this scenario.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Bullish sentiment towards GBP/USD increases

Although there are relatively less people than yesterday considering that the British Pound is going to appreciate versus the US Dollar, they are still in majority (57%). In the meantime, the share of sell orders rose from 67% to 68%.

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