GBP/USD declines prior to BoE rate cut

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
In general, the GBP/USD continued to fluctuate above the 1.2800/1.2820 range until the morning before the publication of the Bank of England Official Bank Rate. During the morning hours, the markets pushed the rate down by as much as 100 points. As the rate was released, the GBP/USD recovered only to find resistance in the 1.2800/1.2820 zone.

Economic Calendar



On Friday, the US monthly employment data sets are bound to move the markets. At 12:30 GMT, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment and the Unemployment Rate. Better than expected data is set to strengthen the USD. Below forecast numbers are likely to cause a decline of the USD.

GBP/USD hourly chart analysis

In the near term future, the rate could decline to the support of the 1.2735/1.2750 range and the weekly S3 simple pivot point at 1.2733. Further below, the 1.2700 mark is expected to once again act as support.

On the other hand, a move above 1.2800/1.2820 might be slowed down by the weekly S1 simple pivot point, the 50 and 100-hour simple moving averages and the 1.2860 level that has shown to be capable to act as resistance. In addition, the 200-hour SMA was approaching the 1.2860 level and the weekly simple pivot point is located at 1.2885. If all of these levels fail, the 1.2900 level might come into play.

Hourly Chart

GBP/USD daily candle chart analysis

On the daily candle chart, the rate has hit the lower trend line of the large scael channel pattern. The major support zone and the 50-day simple moving average have failed to hold the rate up.

If the pair passes below the trend line, there is no additional support on this chart as low as the combination of the 100 and 200-day simple moving averages below 1.2700. However, note that the 1.2700 has been acting as both as support and resistance.

On the other hand, a potential recovery is bound to face the 1.2800/1.2850 range. Higher above take into account the 1.2900 mark.

Daily chart


Traders go from bullish to bearish


On Monday, traders werey long, as 57% of open position volume at Dukascopy was long.

In the meantime, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range above and below the current rate were 64% to buy.

On Thursday, traders were 54% short. Meanwhile, pending orders were 64% to buy the GBP versus the USD.

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