GBP/USD action is dictated by Bank of England

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The United States Federal Reserve hiked its Federal Funds Rate by 0.50%. The market consensus forecast was a 0.50% hike, which has brought the rate from 4.00% up to 4.50%. The initial rate hike caused a surge of the US Dollar, drop of the equity markets and surge of peer currencies. The event was followed by the press conference of the Chairman of the US Fed. As the head of the central bank made his speech, the initial move extended and the US Dollar surged, moving the rest of the markets down.

The GBP/USD was trading between the 1.2350 and 1.2400 levels. However, before the Thursday's 12:00 GMT announcement of the Bank of England, the rate had declined to 1.2300.

Economic Calendar



On Thursday, at 12:00 GMT, the Bank of England is going to announce its interest rate decision. The central bank is most likely going to take into account the decision of the Federal Reserve. Note that the BoE and the ECB have scheduled their rate decision meetings in the aftermath of the US rate announcement.

Later on, at 13:30 GMT, the US Retails Sales data and Empire State Manufacturing Index might cause an adjustment in the value of the US Dollar.

The week will end with the publication of Markit Services and Manufacturing sector Purchasing Managers Index survey data. United Kingdom data is set to be published at 09:30 GMT. The UK data is followed by US data at 14:45 GMT.

GBP/USD short-term view

The Bank of England is set to release its Official Bank Rate at 12:00 GMT. The central bank is expected to hike rates up to 3.50% from 3.00%. Expect the GBP to react to the event with high volatility.

Hourly Chart

GBP/USD daily chart's review

On the daily candle chart, the pair has breached the summer high level zone at 1.2275/1.2330. The zone could turn into support.

Above the summer high level zone, take into account the April and May resistance at 1.2610/1.2660.
Daily chart


Traders remain short


Before the US CPI, traders were bearish, as 60% of trader open position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in short positions.

In the meantime, pending orders in a 100-base point range around the pair were 60% to sell the GBP/USD.

On Wednesday, the sentiment was 62% short and pending orders were 68% to buy.

By mid-Thursday the sentiment was 61% short and orders were 52% to buy.

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