EUR/USD breaks large scale pattern

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The 1.1850 level provided the EUR/USD currency exchange rate with resistance throughout Thursday. However, on Friday morning, the currency exchange rate passed this level and aimed at the 1.1900 mark.

Future forecasts were based upon what would happen at the 1.1900 mark.

Economic Calendar Analysis



On Friday, the US are publishing their monthly employment statistics. Among them will be the Average Earnings, Unemployment Rate and official Non-Farm Employment Change. In general, the Average Earnings and Employment Change reveal, how much USD is used for employment.

The currency exchange rate has moved from 15.7 to 51.8 pips on the announcement since June.

Next week, on Thursday, at 13:30 GMT USD pairs could move because of the release of the US Consumer Price Index and the Unemployment Claims. The rate could move up to 20 pips on the announcement.

On Friday, the US Producer Price Index are scheduled to be released at 13:30 GMT. The EUR/USD has moved from 7.2 to 48.9 pips during the release of the PPI.

However, the 48.9 pips move was an anomaly caused by other data being released together with the PPI. Instead, expect a move from 7.2 to 12.2 pips.

Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases of this and other currency exchange rates.

EUR/USD hourly chart's review

At mid-day on Friday, the rate was aiming at the psychological resistance of the 1.1900 mark.

From the one hand, it is likely that the exchange rate could continue to trade upwards in the short term. In this case the rate could face the resistance level—the weekly R2 at 1.1939.

From the other hand, the currency pair could reverse south from the psychological level at 1.1900. Note that the pair could face the support area formed by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs, as well the weekly PP and the Fibo 61.80% in the 1.1707/1.1765 range.

Hourly Chart



On the daily candle chart, the EUR/USD currency exchange rate has broken the resistance of the channel down pattern, which guided the rate down since August.

In the near term future, the rate could test the resistance of the August high level of 1.2000.

Daily chart




Traders are short

On Friday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange trader open positions were bearish, as 55% of open position volume was in short positions.

On Thursday, the sentiment became 53% short.

Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were 69% to sell the pair.

The orders were 80% to sell on Thursday.

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