- SWFX market sentiment is 60% bullish today
- 58% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to SELL
- US ISM data will be released on Tuesday
The EUR/USD currency exchange rate fell down below the 1.16 mark at the end of last week, but began to recover on Monday. Namely, after touching the low level of 1.1585, the currency exchange rate began to recover and revealed a small scale channel up pattern.
The European Single Currency weakened against the US Dollar, following the US Prelim GDP data release on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. The EUR/USD currency pair lost only 6 pips or 0.05% at the time of the release but the whole drop totalled 10 pips or 0.09%.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the US Prelim GDP data that came better-than-expected. Namely, the GDP grew by 4.2%, compared with the forecasted 4.0%. The data release showed that the US currency should be more demanded than previously though.
First minor data on Tuesday
Although the week for macroeconomic traders has already started, the first data set, which will influence the US Dollar and thus the EUR/USD, will be published on Tuesday.
Namely, the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be published at 14:00 GMT on Tuesday. The release will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics at 13:50 GMT. Although, as it has been seen in the past, the data release is not expected to cause a large bounce in the currency exchange rates that involve the US Dollar.
Meanwhile, note that there will be other much larger macro releases occurring throughout the week that will cause bounces in the currency exchange rates.
EUR/USD breaks a pattern
The EUR/USD was at the 1.1607 mark on Monday morning. The main rate was located near the weekly pivot point at the 1.1641 mark during the morning hours. The main pair broke the pattern during Friday's session, slumped below the junior descending line.It is expected that the European Single Currency might move upwards to fit back into the pattern which was drawn last week. On the other side, the European Single Currency might to go downwards due to a strong resistance of the weekly PP and the 200-hour simple moving average.
Hourly Chart
After reviewing the daily chart the most dominant pattern was spotted. It is a massive scale descending channel pattern, which has been guiding the rate downwards since February. The recent surge provided the needed reference point to properly drawn the just mentioned channel.
On the chart one can observe that the recent surge represents the pair's first move in the aftermath of the announcement of Jerome Powell. This move most likely is the first one in the borders of a large scale pattern. The large scale pattern will be junior to the already mentioned dominant pattern and show a swing in the borders of the larger pattern.
Daily chart
After a long period of no changes, the bullish sentiment on the EUR/USD has increased. Namely, 60% of SWFX traders were long on Monday, compared to 59% on Friday.
Meanwhile, all of the traders on SWFX have prepared pending trade orders, which might be executed in certain situations. Of all the take profits, stop losses, sell and buy orders 62% are set to sell the EUR/USD. This means that, if the rate increases volatility, the retail sector will push the rate down.
Other, more long term oriented FX brokerages also publish their sentiment data. They can help retail traders with understanding the market expectations for the next couple of months. For example, OANDA brokerage traders are 57% short on the pair, and Saxo Bank traders are 55% short.
All of the sentiment information provides us with the understanding of the collective market thought. Namely, the EUR/USD has still open short term long positions, which have close by stop losses and take profits that can be observed on the SWFX sentiment. Meanwhile, the longer term traders have already moved to the bear side and shorted the pair.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility