- The Swiss market is 66% bullish on the pair
- Pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to sell in 63% of cases
- Busy week for fundamental traders will start on Wednesday
The GBP/USD started the week calmly, as the rate traded near the 1.26 mark. By the middle of the day the currency pair was squeezed in between technical levels at 1.2610 and 1.2595.
Latest Fundamental Event
The Census Bureau released US Retail Sales data that came out better than expected of 0.2%, compare to forecasted 0.1%. Note, that the US Core Retail Sales was released at the same time with the US Retail Sales.
Andrew Hunter, the senior U.S. Economist at Capital Economics said, "Along with the continued strength of the labor market, the boost to real incomes from the recent plunge in gasoline prices appears to be providing a big support to spending growth, which could continue for a few more months,".
Live Cover: US Retail Sales
Read More: Fundamental Analysis
UK data starts the week on Wednesday
Until Wednesday there are no notable data releases scheduled to occur that might impact any of the major pairs or gold.On Wednesday, the macroeconomic data releases will start at 09:30 GMT with the UK Consumer Price Index. The event is expected to cause at least a 20 base point move.
On the same day at 13:30 GMT the Canadian will publish the Consumer Price Index data sets. During the last half a year the data release has caused fluctuations of at least 40 pips.
Afterwards at 19:00 GMT the event of the week will take place. Namely, the FOMC Statement and the Federal Funds Rate will be published. The Federal Reserve is expected to hike the US central banks interest rate to 2.5% from 2.25%.
In theory the event is expected to cause a US Dollar surge, which would beat the top pairs downwards. This year the interest rate hikes have caused moves of at least 40 base points.
On Thursday, all attention will be paid to events in the UK. Namely, at 09:30 GMT the UK Retail Sales are expected to cause a move from 10 to 40 pips.
Afterwards, the Bank of England will announce their rate decision. The event has caused moves from 26 to 97 pips since May 2018.
On Friday the data releases will continue. During the morning hours, namely, at 09:30 GMT the UK Current Account will be published. This event causes moves from 15 to 45 pips.
The week's data will end at 13:30 GMT. At that time the Canadian Retail Sales and GDP data will be published. Simultaneously the US Durable Goods data sets and Final GDP will be released.
The last event is too complex to explain it shortly. Instead, state your questions at the weekly Monday's economic calendar stream at 12:00 GMT.
The above mentioned data release will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics. The event can be watched on our YouTube channel.
More content: Youtube Channel
GBP/USD short term review
During Friday's trading session, the currency exchange rate passed through the support of the monthly S1 at 1.2596 to end the trading session at the 1.2575 mark. During Monday's morning hours, the British Pound was resisted by the 100-hour SMA to trade at the 1.2577 mark.It is expected that the British Pound will depreciate against the US Dollar to continue trading downwards the weekly S1 at the 1.2457 mark. The 100-hour SMA will resist the rate to push the rate to depreciate during the day.
However, the currency exchange rate could break the resistance levels of the technical indicators to trade near the descending medium pattern line at the 1.2650 mark.
Hourly Chart
The descending pattern of the daily candle chart has not been affected during the recent announcements. Actually, the last drop of the GBP/USD was consistent with the pattern, as it represented a bounce off from the upper trend line of the pattern.
In accordance with the pattern, the currency exchange rate is set to continue to decline into the first quarter of 2019.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Traders of the Swiss Foreign Exchange are long
On Monday, 66% of trader open positions on the Swiss Foreign Exchange were long on the GBP/USD. The sentiment had not changed noticeably since Friday.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-base point range were mostly set to sell the pair. Namely, 63% of trader pending orders were set to sell the GBP/USD.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-base point range were mostly set to sell the pair. Namely, 63% of trader pending orders were set to sell the GBP/USD.