- The market sentiment of the Swiss Foreign Exchange is 52% long
- 50% of pending orders in the 100-pip are to BUY
- US Employment package and Manufacturing PMI
Friday's first half of trading saw the USD/JPY surge above the 109.10 level. Due to that reason the currency exchange rate was set to surge even more, as it should reach for the 200-hour SMA, which was located at the 109.45 mark.
The Census Bureau simultaneously released two data sets, where Durable Goods Orders data came out lower-than-expected of negative 1.7%, which was one of the main reason for currency price to weaken.
In the contrary, Core Durable Goods Orders came out better-than-expected of 0.9%, which didn't let the EUR/USD currency pair to weaken too much, leaving the overall price fluctuations flat.
Two times to watch out for US macroeconomic data releases
On Friday Dukascopy analysts will cover two US macroeconomic data releases, which are highly likely going to increase short term volatility of all financial instruments that involve the US Dollar.
First and most importantly will be the release of three employment data sets at 12:30 GMT. The release will be a part of the Friday's webinar, which will begin at 12:00 GMT.
Afterwards, at 14:00 GMT the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released. The data coverage on the bank's live webinar will begin at 13:50 GMT.
USD/JPY bearish today
Thursday's trading session did not introduce significant changes to the pair's price level, as any attempts to move either direction were restricted by the 100-hour SMA and the weekly S1. The former was breached to the upside early on Friday, thus clearing the way until the weekly PP and the 200-hour SMA at 109.50.In case no fundamentals surprise the market, it is unlikely that this level is breached, as it is likewise reinforced by the 200-period SMA on the 4H chart.
Thus, it is expected that the pair is tended south in this session. The nearest support is the 55– and 100-hour SMAs at 108.80. The given fall should not stop there but continue even lower until the 108.40 mark.
Hourly Chart
On Friday it could be clearly visible that the currency exchange rate was in the process of a rebound against the lower trend line of a dominant ascending channel pattern.
The next target for the rate on Friday was the resistance of the weekly PP, which was located at the 109.45 mark.
Meanwhile, one needed to take into account that the currency exchange rate had broken the resistance of the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level at the 109.10 mark. Due to that reason the ex-resistance was set to act as support.
Daily chart
On Friday, 52% of open Swiss Foreign Exchange USD/JPY positions were short. Previously, the sentiment was 52% bullish.
Meanwhile, trader set up orders are bullish with 55% of them being set to buy the Greenback. Previously, 54% of orders were to buy.
The order buy proportion has been growing each day, as the currency exchange rate gains more ground, confirming that it a rebound is occurring on the larger scale.
The market sentiment of OANDA traders has been constantly largely bullish, as 61% of their traders are holding long positions. There was a drop down to 53% on Tuesday. In addition, the proportion of long positions of Saxo bank traders is 56%.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility