- SWFX market sentiment is 62% bullish (-1%)
- 54% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Upcoming fundamental events: US Average Hourly Earnings m/m, US Non-Farm Employment Change, US Unemployment Rate, ISM Manufacturing PMI, G7 meetings
EUR/USD is likely to be affected by moving averages in this session.
The Greenback strengthened against the Eurozones's single currency, following the US Preliminary GDP data release on Wednesday. The EUR/USD currency pair lost six pips, or 0.05%, however retraced back in the next minute and afterwards continued to fluctuate in the 1.1625 area.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released Preliminary Gross Domestic Product data that came out lower-than-expected of 2.2%, compared to the 2.5% in the previous period.
"The revision to headline GDP growth was small, as were most of the revisions to GDP components. The standouts were weaker inventory investment, weaker residential investment and stronger business investment," said Chris Low of FTN Financial Group.
US in focus
Friday's trading session is allocated to US fundamentals. The Bureau of Labour Statistics will release the monthly Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate at 1230GMT. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is published at 1400GMT.
EUR/USD fails to overcome 1.17
EUR/USD showed some volatility on Thursday but it did not leave that session's opening level near 1.1670. Any significant leaps were restricted by SMAs on the 1H and 4H time-frames. As a result, the pair did not fully breach the upper boundary of a seven-week channel circa 1.17.If this mark is breached in the nearest time, the Euro is likely to target the 1.1760 area where the 100-period (4H) SMA, the weekly PP and the monthly R1 are located. This level should be surpassed only if some fundamentals provides the pair with strong bullish momentum.
On the other hand, technical indicators flash bearish signals. It should be noted that the rate faces the 55– and 100-hour SMAs at 1.1640. Given the close proximity of this support, a more likely daily low should be 1.16.
Hourly Chart
The common European currency has fallen considerably against the US Dollar since mid-April which marks a 5.95% plunge within a couple of weeks.
As apparent on the daily chart, this bearish momentum has allayed during the past two weeks, thus pointing to a soon change in direction. Technical indicators are likewise starting to stabilise in the oversold territory.
The nearest support is provided by the monthly S3 at 1.16. This level should not be breached.
Daily Chart
Bulls remain in charge
EUR/USD remains strongly bullish with 62% of open positions being long (-1%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 57% bullish and the US Dollar is 60% bearish.
OANDA traders are bullish on the Euro with 55% of open positions being long today (-3%). The market sentiment of Saxo bank has changed to bearish, as its clients are holding 52% short positions (+1%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility