- SWFX market sentiment is 63% bullish
- 52% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to BUY the Euro
- Upcoming fundamental events: US CB Consumer Confidence
Political uncertainty in Italy continues to weigh heavily on the common European curreny.
The Greenback weakened against the Eurozone's single currency, following the US Durable Goods Orders data release on Friday. The EUR/USD currency pair gained 2 pips, or 0.01%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.1655 area.
The Census Bureau simultaneously released two data sets, where Durable Goods Orders data came out lower-than-expected of negative 1.7%, which was one of the main reason for currency price to weaken.
In the contrary, Core Durable Goods Orders came out better-than-expected of 0.9%, which didn't let the EUR/USD currency pair to weaken too much, leaving the overall price fluctuations lat.
CB Consumer Confidence
The only fundamental data release in this session is the Consumer Confidence published by the US Conference Board at 1400GMT. Analysts expect a slight decline month-on-month down to 128.2.
EUR/USD pushed lower by political turmoil in Italy
Bears took over the market on Monday, driven by political turmoil in Italy. As a result, the Euro weakened 1.00% against its American counterpart and thus had reached the 1.1607 level by mid-day. The remaining part of that session was spent with low volatility.From technical point of view, the pair should recover both today and this week. The nearest resistance area is the 55– and 100-hour SMAs circa 1.1680, while the upper channel line and the 220-hour moving average are located near the 1.1750 area.
Nevertheless, fundamental developments in Italy are likely to drive this currency pair for the following trading sessions. In case of negative news, the bearish impact should push the pair down to its 6-1/2-month low or even the weekly S2 at 1.1550 and 1.1527, respectively.
Hourly Chart
The common European currency has fallen considerably against the US Dollar since mid-April which marks a 5.95% plunge within a couple of weeks.
As apparent on the daily chart, this bearish momentum has allayed during the past two weeks, thus pointing to a soon change in direction. Technical indicators are likewise starting to stabilise in the oversold territory.
The nearest support is provided by the monthly S3 at 1.16. This level should not be breached.
Daily Chart
Bulls remain in charge
EUR/USD remains strongly bullish with 63% of open positions being long.
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 58% bullish and the US Dollar is 61% bearish.
OANDA traders are increasingly bullish on the Euro with 59% of open positions being long today (+2%). The market sentiment of Saxo bank has once again turned bullish, as its clients are holding 52% long positions, compared to 51% short ones on Monday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility