- SWFX market sentiment is 65% bullish
- 52% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to BUY the Euro
- Upcoming fundamental events: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, US Unemployment Claims
The Euro's appreciation today is dependent on its ability to surpass the 55-hour SMA at 1.1850.
The Greenback weakened against the Eurozone's single currency, following US Retail Sales data release on Tuesday. The EUR/USD currency pair gained only 2 pips, or 0.02%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.1805 area.
The Census Bureau released two data sets simultaneously, where Residential Building Permits for the month of April came out in line with a forecast of 1.35M, moreover, the same number was released in the previous period.
The US Dollar's slight weakening may be affected due to the lower-than-expected Housing Starts data of 1.29M, compared to the forecast of 1.32M.
Relatively calm day
This trading session should be relatively calm from fundamental point of view, as only two data sets of intermediate importance are scheduled for today, namely, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and the weekly Unemployment Claims published at 1230GMT.
Meanwhile, note that at 12:00 GMT Dukascopy Analysts are hosting a Swing Trading introduction webinar. During the webinar anyone can participate and learn, how to swing trade by using the information and widgets provided by Dukascopy. Moreover, the chat will be available for asking questions.
EUR/USD needs to gain bullish momentum
It is expected that the pair tries to maintain its upward movement during most of the day. However, it does face two strong resistance clusters that could hinder or event halt the Euro's further advance, namely, the weekly S1 and the 55-hour SMA or the 100– and 200-hour SMAs at 1.1850 and 1.1900, respectively. It is unlikely that the latter is breached today, thus setting this level as the daily high.
On the other hand, technical indicators flash bearish signals. In the worst-case scenario, the Euro could fall down to its 2018 low of 1.1720 but it should nevertheless remain above it.
Hourly Chart
The common European currency continues to fall against the US Dollar for the third consecutive week. This massive decline has sent daily technical indicators in the strongly oversold territory.
By Thursday morning, the Euro had fallen down to a new 2018 low of 1.18. Even if some bearish sentiment is still to prevail this week, the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1740 is unlikely to be breached before the pair starts a new medium-term surge.
Daily Chart
Bulls remain in charge
EUR/USD remains strongly bullish with 65% of open positions being long.
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 58% bullish and the US Dollar is 62% bearish.
OANDA traders have weakened their sentiment by one percentage point to 52% long positions. Meanwhile, the market sentiment of Saxo Bank has turned 53% bullish in comparison to the market equilibrium on Wednesday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility