- SWFX market sentiment is 61% bullish (+2%)
- 72% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Upside potential until 1.2250
- Upcoming fundamental events: ECB Minimum Bid Rate, ECB Press Conference, US (Core) Durable Goods Orders m/m, US Unemployment Claims
The Euro has fallen to a four-month low of 1.2165 this morning; thus, some recovery is likely today.
The Greenback strengthened against the Eurozone's single currency, following the US CB Consumer Confidence data release on Tuesday. The EUR/USD currency pair lost 10 pips, or 0.08%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.2226 area.
The Conference Board Inc. released better-than-expected Consumer Confidence, surpassing the forecasts of 126.0 with the number of 128.7 in April.
EUR/USD currency pair remained under pressure. One of the main reasons for Greenback to rally was high 10-year United States treasury bills, which showed notable gains during the start of the week.
ECB in focus
The European Central Bank is set to releases its Minimum Bid Rate at 1145GMT. Analysts forecast that the rate should remain at its current level of 0.00%. The ECB Press Conference is scheduled 45 minutes later at 1230GMT.
Meanwhile, the US (Core) Durable Goods Orders during March and the weekly Unemployment Claims are likewise published at 1230GMT.
EUR/USD falls to 2018 support
EUR/USD failed to pick up momentum on Wednesday and remained below the 55-hour SMA. The downside momentum was strong enough to breach the 100-day SMA at 1.22 and push the rate down to the monthly S1 and the weekly S2 at 1.2170.Given that the pair has failed to move below this level since the very beginning of 2018, the first part of the session should mark a slight recovery up to the 55-hour SMA, the weekly S1 and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement.
Traders are likely to maintain volatility at low levels during this time prior to the ECB Minimum Bid Rate and the press conference today at 1145GMT and 1230GMT, respectively. These releases could guide the market sentiment during the second part of the day. The pair, however, should remain in the 1.2150/1.2300 range.
Hourly Chart
The strong downside momentum this week has resulted in a breakout of the 55-day SMA and the senior channel circa 1.23. By Tuesday morning, the Euro was testing the 100-day moving average.
It is likely that some bullish correction occurs this week; however, the trend in the medium term should nevertheless remain south. The following downside target is the 200-day SMA near 1.20.
Daily Chart
Bulls grow stronger
EUR/USD keeps strengthening its bullish sentiment with 61% of open positions being long (+2%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro stands at equilibrium and the US Dollar is 57% bearish.
The market sentiment of OANDA has turned bearish today, as 51% of its traders are holding short positions. Meanwhile, Saxo Bank clients share the same sentiment with 54% of open positions being short (-3%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility