- SWFX market sentiment is 64% bullish
- Pending orders in the 100-pip range are 60% to BUY
- Empty Monday for macroeconomic data
On Monday the USD/JPY currency exchange rate traded between two simple moving averages. Meanwhile, on a larger scale it could be observed that a surge of the currency pair was set to continue.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed much lower-than-expected data in non-farm employment change in March. However, there was an employment growth of 103K, it decreased more than three times from 326K in the prior month.
Without non-farm employment change, there were two more data sets that came out simultaneously. Average hourly earnings stayed in line with the forecast, however, the unemployment rate came out to be 4.1%, which was 0.1% more than expected.
Empty Monday
On Monday there are no notable macroeconomic data releases scheduled to occur. However, the rest of the week is set to have notable events occurring.
These events will be reviewed and discussed on the Dukascopy Research webinar at 12:00 GMT on Monday. During the discussion of the events, the data releases to be covered are set to be chosen not only by Dukascopy analysts, but also by webinar participants.
USD/JPY confined by two moving averages
After trading at its March high of 107.50 early on Friday, downside risks took over the market and pushed the pair down to the support of the 100-hour SMA, the 23.60% Fibo retracement and the weekly PP.The pair remained near this level on Monday morning as well, thus being stranded between the 55– and 100-hour SMAs during the Asian session. Technical indicators suggest that the rate is more likely to push higher in this session towards the upper boundary of a three-week channel.
This line, however, is unlikely to be reached today. In case of a strong bullish sentiment, the US Dollar could test the weekly R1 and the 38.20% Fibo at 108.00.
Meanwhile, the downside target for today is the 200-hour SMA and a breached channel line at 106.00 which might be used to form a retracement.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart one can observe that the main focus is still on the medium term ascending channel pattern, which is aimed in a rather sharp angle upwards.
Due to that angle and the range of the pattern, it is assumed that it only represents the first move in the borders of a new long term ascending channel pattern.
Daily chart
SWFX traders are still on the long side, as 64% of open positions were bullish during the morning hours.
Moreover, trader set up orders remain bullish, as 58% of trader set up orders were to buy the US Dollar in favour to the Japanese Yen.
Meanwhile, the market sentiment of OANDA traders remains strongly bullish with 68% long positions. In addition, Saxo bank traders are 59% bullish in regards to this pair.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility