- Traders are bearish with 53% short positions (+1%)
- 57% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Upside potential up to 1.23
- Important for today: US Average Hourly Earnings m/m, US Non-Farm Employment Change, US Unemployment Rate, Fed Chair Powell to speak
An advance above the 1.2280 mark is restricted by 55- and 100-hour SMAs.
The Eurozone's single currency weakened against the Greenback, following the US ADP non-farm employment data release on Wednesday. The EUR/USD currency pair lost only five pips, or 0.04%, to continue fluctuating and going back up to the 1.2287 level.
The Automatic Data Processing, Inc. revealed better-than-expected data in the US non-farm employment data in March. Employment in private sector increased by 241,000, continuing the momentum in the Q1 2018, adding more jobs per month than on average in 2017, said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. He added that the manufacturing sector increased in its strongest pace during the last three years.
US employment data
Friday's trading session is allocated entirely to fundamentals from the United States. The US Bureau of Labour Statistics is set to release the Average Hourly Earnings, the Non-Farm Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate for March at 1230GMT. It is forecasted that the average hourly pay has increased by 0.3% during the given month, compared to a slight advance of 0.1% in February.
Meanwhile, the Chair of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell will speak about the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Chicago at 1730GMT.
EUR/USD falls to 38.20% Fibo
Downside risks dominated the common European currency was on Thursday, as rather disappointing Euro zone's PMI and German factory orders restricted the pair from breaching the 55-hour SMA. The pair fell to a short-term trend-line and the 38.20% Fibo retracement and has since remained trading at the given level.Technical indicators suggest that the same bearish sentiment which has dominated the Euro for the last eight sessions could prevail in this session, as well. Downside potential is apparent until the 2017 low, the weekly S2 and the monthly S1 at 1.2165. However, it is unlikely that such a plunge would occur today, thus setting the 1.22 mark as a more probable target.
Meanwhile, the pair is not expected to surpass the psychological 1.23 mark due to the 55– and 100-hour SMAs.
Hourly Chart
EUR/JPY has been trading sideways since early March, as the strong support of the 55-day SMA has not allowed the pair to move below the 1.22 mark.
The Euro might still push slightly higher towards the weekly R1 and the upper boundary of the junior channel this week. However, the general direction should nevertheless remain south to eventually breach the senior channel and test the 100-day SMA and the monthly S1 at 1.2130.
Daily Chart
Bears continue to prevail
The bearish market sentiment for EUR/USD has strengthened with 53% short positions (+1%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 60% bearish and the US Dollar is 52% bullish.
The bearish sentiment of OANDA traders stands at 55% today (-1%). Saxo Bank clients share the same sentiment with 57% of open positions being short (-1%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility