- 61% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are to BUY
- SWFX market sentiment is 52% bearish
- Downside potential until 1.4090
- Upcoming events: FOMC Members Dudley, Mester and Quarles to speak
The Census Bureau reported that the country's core durable goods orders came in better than expected, posting 1.2% uptick in February and surpassing the forecast of a 0.5% surge.
One of the main reasons for this rebound was the increase in shipments of core capital goods. Moreover, non-defense capital goods orders recorded the biggest increase in five months. This surge indicates that business spending is set to continue.
Minor speeches scheduled for today
Three speeches are scheduled for this session. The President of the Federal Bank of New York William Dudley, the President of the Federal Bank of Cleveland Loretta Mester and the Federal Reserve Governor Randal Quarles are set to speak at separate events at 1630GMT, 2030GMT and 2310GMT, respectively.
GBP/USD supported by 55-hour SMA
The minor period of consolidation which started on Thursday was not followed by a breakout of the 55-hour SMA near 1.41. Instead, the Pound gained upside momentum mid-Friday and pushed the rate above the 1.4150 mark. It is likely that the same scenario occurs today.No significant fundamentals that could add some bearish pressure are scheduled for today. Thus, the Sterling should continue trading along the 55-hour moving average. The nearest resistance is set by a channel line or the monthly R2 near 1.4225 and 1.4300, respectively.
In case the 55-hour SMA is breached, losses should not exceed the 1.41 area where the 100-hour moving average is located.
Hourly chart
The Sterling has been appreciating gradually against the US Dollar since the beginning of March – the movement which has been guided by the 55-day SMA. It seems that the pair might still show some upside potential towards the 1.44 area this week.
Daily Chart
The SWFX market sentiment remains bearish with 52% short positions. Meanwhile, 53% of pending orders are to buy the Sterling (-12%).
The number of short positions of OANDA traders has fallen to 51% in this session. Saxo Bank clients have reduced their bearish sentiment by five percentage points today, thus currently standing at 54% short positions. This is an 11% decrease since Thursday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility