- SWFX market sentiment is 60% bearish (+3%)
- 60% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Significant resistance near 1.2450
- Upcoming events: ECB Minimum Bid Rate, ECB Press Conference, US Unemployment Claims
The Greenback rose against its European counterpart following the release of the ADP report on non-farm payrolls for February. The EUR/USD pair lost 12 base points, or 0.10%, reaching the 1.2405 level, to be seen returning back to the 1.2415 area later on.
The US private sector created 235K jobs in the reported month, expanding at a slightly slower pace than in January. At the same time, US non-farm employment change number still surpassed the February's forecast. Ahu Yildirmaz, the Vice President and Co-head of the ADP Research Institute, said that the US labor market is keeping its growth rate uninterrupted and that persistent gains have been seen in industries related to leisure, hospitality and retail.
ECB in focus
The European Central Bank is set to release its Minimum Bid Rate at 1245GMT, as well as hold a press conference 45 minutes later at 1330GMT.
The US Department of Labour will publish the weekly unemployment data at the same time.
EUR/USD tended north
EUR/USD was trading in a short-term ascending channel for several sessions. This strong upside momentum, however, allayed significantly on Wednesday when the Euro approached the resistance of the monthly PP. The pair has since been trading sideways for the second consecutive session.As apparent on the chart, it has not yet managed to reach the upper boundary of a six-week channel down. Thus, it is likely that the current period of consolidation is followed by a surge up to the 1.2470 mark during the remaining part of this week.
The Euro could remain stranded between the 55-hour SMA and the monthly R1 for several hours until upward pressure prevails in the market. ECB fundamentals, however, might introduce some changes to this scenario mid-session.
Hourly Chart
During the second part of last week, the Euro has bounced off the 55-day SMA and is moving closer to the 1.24 area. However, the general trend does show that the pair is likely to depreciate in the medium term, suggesting that the current long-term channel could be breached to the downside circa 1.2170. Technical indicators on the daily time-frame are likewise supportive of the bearish scenario.
Daily Chart
Traders are bearish
The number of short positions of the EUR/USD exchange rate is 60% in this session (+3%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 62% bearish and the US Dollar is 57% bullish.
OANDA traders have increased their bearish sentiment by one percentage point, thus currently being located at 59% short positions (+2%). The bearish sentiment of Saxo Bank clients stands at 65% short positions (+2%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility