- SWFX market sentiment is 57% bearish
- 62% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to SELL
- 54% of traders are bullish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: US Unemployment Claims, ECB President Draghi Speaks
In result of the previous trading session the currency rate has formed the falling wedge formation. As its breaking point generally matches with the bottom edge of a larger descending channel, a rebound is likely to happen.
The Greenback fell modestly against the Euro on the ADP report revealing some weakening in the employment change in November. The EUR/USD lost 5 base points to return ito 1.1810 area and declined further to be seen trading below the 1.1800 area, as the next release was not strong enough to bring the pair back to stronger levels.
The US private sector created 190K jobs in November, down strongly from the prior month, but in line with projections, the ADP report indicated, ahead of more comprehensive the US Labour Departments figures to be issued on Friday. Meanwhile, another data showed the revision of the US unit labour costs, which was at an annualised 0.2% rate in the Q3, compared to the initially reported 0.5% rise.
No notable releases
Despite release of the US Unemployment Claims and the ECB President Draghi speech, there are no notable macroeconomic events planned for today that are expected to cause notable volatility in the market.
EUR/USD sneaks below monthly PP
As it was projected yesterday, an attempt of the currency exchange rate to reach the 1.1866 level was neutralized by the slipping 55-hour SMA. Accordingly, the Dollar continued to appreciate against the Euro. The only difference is that this downward movement led to transformation of a descending channel into the falling wedge formation. The new pattern presupposes an upcoming rebound, which might happen once the pair will reach the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level located at 1.1760. However, even in case this scenario materializes the surge might not last for long due to pressure of three moving averages. In addition to that, the northern side is covered by the support-turned-resistance monthly PP at 1.1806. There is also a need to take into account the fundamental factor, which might break the pattern and continue pushing the pair to the bottom.
Hourly Chart
Yesterday's trading session did not bring any notable developments, as the pair continues to move in southern direction in a tiny descending channel that represents a part of a larger five-month long descending channel. Accordingly, the fall of the rate is likely to continue at least until it encounters combined support formed by the 55-day SMA and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Daily Chart
Market sentiment is bearish
In result of the previous trading session the bearish market sentiment slightly decreased, as 57% of open positions are short now.
In the meantime, the outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is the following: the Euro is 62% bearish and the Dollar is 54% bullish.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 60% (+0%) of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO are bearish on this currency pair with 56% (-1%) of open short positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility