- SWFX market sentiment is 58% bearish
- 53% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to BUY
- 54% of traders are bullish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: Euro Zone CPI Flash Estimate, US Unemployment Claims, Core PCE Price Index, Personal Spending, Chicago PMI
Most of the previous trading session the exchange rate spent in a limbo between the 1.1874 and 1.1837 levels. Generally, the pair is expected to continue the surge. But today the rate is likely to make another retreat to the 200-hour SMA.
The Greenback was slightly changed against the Japanese Yen, following the preliminary data release on the US economic growth. The USD/JPY exchange rate fell 3 base points to continue fluctuating at a stronger level of 111.95, targeting the 112.0 area.
The US economy expanded at the fastest pace in three years, as businesses invested more in equipment and inventories, offsetting slackening in inflation. The Commerce Department stated in its preliminary report that the US gross domestic product rose at a 3.3% yearly pace in the September quarter. Donald Trump wants diminished taxes to lift yearly GDP growth to 3% on a regular basis. Though, fiscal stimulus is likely to come only when the economy is at full employment.
Various macro releases in the United States
Although there are scheduled four different data releases in the United States, none of them is expected to significant price movements and change the overall trend. The same applies to publication of estimate on the Euro Zone's inflation.
EUR/USD trades near 1.1864 amid strong resistance
As it was forecasted yesterday, the resumption of surge towards the 1.1910 level was halted in resistance zone that contained both the weekly PP with the 55-hour SMA as well as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-hour SMA. Nevertheless, the general scenario remains the same. In medium perspective the pair is projected to reach the upper boundary of a senior descending channel near the 1.1940 mark. However, during this trading session the above technical indicators are likely to push the rate back to combined support formed by the 200-hour SMA and the bottom edge of a junior ascending channel. But this scenario might be altered due to release of estimate on Euro Zone's inflation. Even though the event itself does not arouse much volatility but it might create a momentum for easier breakthrough to the top.
Hourly Chart
A small revision of daily chart revealed existence of a three-month long descending channel that consists of four confirmation points. Accordingly, the currently active channel up represents a part of that larger pattern. So, in medium perspective pair is expected to surge to the 1.1920 level despite resistance posted by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1887.
Daily Chart
Market sentiment is bearish
In result of the previous trading session the bearish market sentiment slightly decreased, as 58% of open positions are short now.
In the meantime, the outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is the following: the Euro is 65% bearish and the Dollar is 54% bullish.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 58% (-1%) of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO are bearish on this currency pair with 57% (+0%) of open short positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility