- SWFX market sentiment is 61% bearish
- Trader pending orders 53% bullish
- Pair opened Monday's session at 1.1203
- Upcoming Events: US Core Durable Goods Orders; ECB President Draghi's Speech
On Monday morning the EUR/USD currency exchange rate flirted with the 1.12 mark. However, the currency exchange rate failed to pass the resistance levels, which are located at that mark. The currency exchange rate is highly likely going to decline during the day's trading session. That is indicated by various short term technical clues. Although, on a larger scale a depreciation of the Euro against the US Dollar is still expected.
Services activity in the 19-country bloc dropped unexpectedly in June, whereas manufacturing activity rose more than expected, a private survey released on Friday showed. IHS Markit reported that its preliminary PMI for the Euro zone's services sector fell to 54.7 points in June, following the preceding month's 56.3 and surpassing expectations for a slight decrease to 56.2. In the meantime, Markit's PMI for the region's manufacturing sector climbed to 57.3 points, up from the prior month's 57.0, while analysts expected a decline to 56.9.
US Durable Goods and Draghi's Speech
This Monday is set to be an exception to the usual routine of a typical Monday. Not only there is a relevant data release scheduled for the day, but also ECB President is set to give a speech. US Core Durable Goods Orders will be in focus at 12:30 GMT. This data release will be covered by the Dukascopy Research team live on the bank's webinar platform. However, Draghi is set to speak at the end of the day, as his speech is scheduled to occur at 17:30 GMT.
EUR/USD squeezed in on Monday
As the title states, the common European currency is trading in a set range against the US Dollar on Monday morning. The pair was fluctuating between the support of the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1.1188 level and the fresh first weekly resistance at the 1.1204 mark. Meanwhile, the pair is showing contradicting signals regarding its future direction. In a long term a decline of the Euro against the Buck is still expected. In regards to the short term, the pair is still trading in the borders of an ascending channel pattern. However, the upper trend line of the channel up pattern has recently been confirmed, which means that in the next 24 hours a decline of the pair might occur. The rate could fall down to the 1.1161 level. Although, there are various support levels, which could hinder the decline.
Hourly Chart
While the analysis was being written the hourly chart's forecasts came true. The pair is declining. It can be clearly observed on the daily chart that the weekly R1 was being also strengthened by the 20-day SMA. Due to that reason the supports are to be looked at. Meanwhile, if one concentrates only on the daily chart, there are no notable levels of significance to be noted, except the already mentioned 20-day SMA.
Daily Chart
Bearish sentiment persists
SWFX traders are 61% short in regards to the pair on Friday. Meanwhile, 53% of trader set up orders are to buy the Euro.
Traders of OANDA are still bearish, as 69.91% of open positions are short on Monday, compared to 67.75% previously. In addition, SAXO bank clients also remain bearish, as 63.76% of open positions are short, compared to 61.71% on Friday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast shows EUR/USD will trade at 1.12 in September
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between May 26 and June 26, expect, on average, that the currency exchange rate may trade at 1.12 during the last week of September. In general, 57% (+3%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be above 1.12 in the following ninety days. Meanwhile, 39% of respondents expect to see the rate below 1.10.