EUR/USD Market Outlook: Technical Trends, Sentiment, and Volatility Expectations

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

Lower levels of overall volatility were observed during previous trading week, that has stabilized FX, trading above 1.16400.

Economic Calendar Analysis


Normal volatility levels may bee seen as a primary scenario for the upcoming trading week however, first part of trading week may provide fundamental data from United States that may increase overall volatility.

EUR/USD Hourly chart analysis

The hourly price action reveals a period of localized range-bound consolidation, with the pair currently testing the 1.16413 pivot point. Price is oscillating closely around the 48-period (SMA), which is acting as a neutral anchor for current momentum. While the market has established a clear ceiling near the 1.16650 resistance level, recent price activity shows intermittent support attempts near the 1.16200 level.



Hourly Chart

Daily chart's review

The EUR/USD daily chart currently exhibits a pronounced bearish bias characterized by a clear descending trendline that has consistently capped rallies since late January. Price action is currently consolidating near the 1.16421 pivot level, which acts as a critical junction; a failure to hold this support would likely invalidate recent attempts at stabilization and expose lower liquidity zones at 1.15650, 1.15030, and 1.14210. Conversely, a sustained break above the descending resistance line is necessary to shift market structure and confirm any potential bullish reversal. Given the narrowing range between the descending trendline and horizontal support, the market is approaching a point of structural exhaustion, suggesting that increased volatility may be imminent as the price tests the integrity of the current support cluster.



Daily chart




Traders are long






EUR/USD sentiment data a majority long position, with 57.34% of traders holding long positions. This represents a net positive positioning of 14.68% compared to the short side.

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