This week, watch out for the US Core PCE Price Index release on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The inflation measure is bound to impact the financial markets through the value of the US Dollar.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
The ongoing decline might look for support in the 2,300.00 mark. However, a failure of this level to hold is not bound to result in a broad decline. The 2,290.00 and 2,280.00 levels have shown to be capable of reversing a decline of the commodity price.
In the case of a sudden price recovery, note that the 50, 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages could act as resistance. The SMAs have shown to be capable of impacting the rate in environments with no fundamental events. Above the SMAs, note the resistance of the 2,340.00 level.
XAU/USD daily charts review
On the daily candle chart, the metal has moved below the 50-day simple moving average, as it appears to have failed to act as support.Meanwhile, note the additional support from the approaching 100-day simple moving average near 2,300.00.
Daily Candle Chart
Traders are short
At the start of the month, traders were 68% bearish. Namely, 68% of all open position volume at Dukascopy was in short positions.
In the meantime, more traders were set to go short. 100% of all pending orders in the 1000 point range around the current metal's price are to sell.
On Wednesday, traders were 59% short and orders were 64% to buy. It appears that some had taken profits beforehand, but other traders are holding in expectations of further downside.