Gold consolidates, as traders expect a drop

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
Since the Fed move, the metal's price remains near 2,040.00. We have marked the resistance and support ranges of the ongoing consolidation at 2,046.80/2,047.80 and 2,027.70/2,030.00.

Meanwhile, on Friday already 55% of open positions were short. Moreover, pending orders in the 1000-point range around the current price were 100% to sell.

Economic Calendar Analysis



During the week before Christmas, there will be a couple of data releases that could impact the financial markets.

On Thursday, not the publication of the US Final GDP at 13:30 GMT. This is the final of the three quarterly US GDP releases. The United States release quarterly Gross Domestic Data over a span of a quarter. Data is published in three releases – Advance, Preliminary and Final. The most impact comes from the Advance GDP, and the least is from the upcoming Final GDP.

On Friday, the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index at 13:30 GMT. The change of the index shows how inflation impacts consumers. It is different from the CPI with the fact that it measures only goods that are consumed by individuals.

XAU/USD short-term forecast

A move above 2,047.80 is set to immediately face the 2,050.00 mark. If the price for gold moves even higher, note the marked levels. They have acted as resistance during the early December booking of the all-time-high levels.

In the case of a decline below the 2,027.70/2,030.00 support range take into account the 50, 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages near 2,025.00, 2,015.00 and 2,005.00. In addition, the 2,007.45/2,012.75 zone could once again impact the price.

Hourly Chart

XAU/USD daily charts review

On the daily candle chart, on Monday, support was found in the 50-day simple moving average near 1,980.00. The recent move appears to be concise with the support holding on, but actually the move was not caused by the SMA. The reason was the Federal Reserve event.

In general, additional resistance could be found in the 2021 and 2022 high level range at 2,065.30/2,082.80.

On the other hand below the 50-day SMA, the 100 and 200-day SMAs are strengthening the 1,950.00 level.

Daily Candle Chart


Gold traders set up sell orders

Before the Fed rate announcements, 52% were short and orders were 59% to sell.

On Thursday, traders were 54% short and orders were 52% to sell.

A 2% move in the sentiment for gold is a notable shift in positions. It appears that a part of traders expect a retracement back down.

On Friday, 55% were short. Pending orders in the 1000-pip range were 100% to sell.

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