Gold declines after Fed hike

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The Federal Reserve rate hike and following press conference caused a surge of the US Dollar. On the gold price charts it resulted in a drop below the support of the 1,805.00 level. After the event, the price declined below 1,795.00. By mid-Thursday, the price was at 1,775.00.

Economic Calendar Analysis



On Thursday, at 13:30 GMT, the US Retails Sales data and Empire State Manufacturing Index might cause an adjustment in the value of the US Dollar.

The week will end with the publication of Markit Services and Manufacturing sector Purchasing Managers Index survey data at 14:45 GMT.

XAU/USD short-term forecast

A continuation of the decline of the commodity price could look for support in the 1,763.55/1,766.15 zone.

On the other hand, a recovery of the price could encounter resistance in the 200-hour simple moving average near 1,790.00, the 100-hour SMA at 1,795.0 and the 50-hour SMA at 1,800.00. Higher above, note the resistance zone at 1,803.30/1,809.85.

Hourly Chart

XAU/USD daily charts review

On the daily candle chart, the metal has pierced the 1,787.05/1,808.15 resistance zone. The zone held the price down since mid-November. Higher above, note the June high of 1,880.00. However, other round price levels acted as support and resistance throughout May and June.

Daily Candle Chart


Long sentiment decreases

On Monday, the open positions were 61% long and orders were 68% to sell.

On Tuesday, the sentiment on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was 59% bullish. Namely, 59% of open position volume was in long positions.

Meanwhile, in the 1000-pip range around the metal's price, pending trade orders were 64% to sell the precious metal.

By mid-Wednesday, only 54% of volume was long. Traders have cut their long positions and taken profits. Meanwhile, orders were 89% to buy. Namely, traders were ready to reopen their long positions, if the Federal Reserve is taking the easing path in their monetary policy.

On Thursday, the selloff continued, as sentiment was 50% long and short. Pending orders were 55% to sell.

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