EUR/USD recovers from pivot point

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The release of the US Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes caused volatility, which eventually lead to a decline below the 1.1700 mark. The decline was stopped by the weekly S1 simple pivot point at 1.1686.

Afterwards, at midnight to Thursday, the pair began a recovery. By the middle of the day, the recovery had reached the combined resistance of the 55 and 100-hour simple moving averages at 1.1720/1.1725.

On September 22, the US Federal Reserve Federal open Markets Committee published its Economic Projections and Statement in addition to the Federal Funds Rate. Namely, US Monetary policy was revealed. In general, the bank revealed that inflation in US had been picking up. Due to that reason, the central bank will keep its policy intact until the 2% inflation target is reached.

Quoting the statement: " The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations will likely continue to reduce the effects of the public health crisis on the economy, but risks to the economic outlook remain.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved."

Economic Calendar Analysis



This week, notable events for this pair have ended. Expect the analysis for next week to be published soon.

EUR/USD hourly chart's review

If the rate manages to pass the resistance of the two hourly simple moving averages, the pair could reach and test the combined resistance of the 200-hour SMA and the weekly simple pivot point at 1.1766.

On the other hand, a bounce off from the SMAs would immediately find support in the 1.1700 mark and the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1707 before reaching the weekly S1 simple pivot point at 1.1686.

Hourly Chart

EUR/USD daily chart's review

On the daily candle chart, EUR/USD has reached the support of the 1.1700 mark, which is strengthened by a 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level.

A passing of the support of the 1.1700 mark could result in the test of the support of the 2020 low levels near 1.1600. On the other hand, a recovery might find resistance in the 55-day simple moving average near 1.1800.

Daily chart




Long sentiment increases

Since Tuesday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange trader open positions were bullish, as 61% of open position volume was in long positions.

On Thursday, the situation changed, as 65% of open position volume was in long positions.

Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were 52% to buy the currency exchange rate. The orders were 57% to buy on Wednesday.

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