EUR/USD plummets as traders go long

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
At mid-day on Thursday, the EUR/USD passed the previous September low level at the 1.1770 mark. In addition, note that after failing to pass the resistance of the 1.1820 mark, the rate lost more than 50 base points in just 8 hours.

Some attributed the decline to an upcoming speech of ECB President Christine Lagarde, which was scheduled for 12:00 GMT.

Economic Calendar Analysis



On Thursday, at 12:30 GMT, the US Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales data sets are set to be released to the public. The event has created moves from 9.5 to 21.7 pips since April.

Note that at the same time the US Unemployment Claims are scheduled to be released. This event has caused EUR/USD moves below ten pips during the last five releases. A 10 base point move for the EUR/USD is considered in the borders of normal volatility. Namely, despite media attention the market does not care about the Unemployment Claims. An exception to the rule were the coronavirus 2020 March and April releases.

Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases of this and other currency exchange rates.

EUR/USD hourly chart's review

If the decline of the EUR/USD would continue, it would most likely look for support in the weekly S2 simple pivot point at 1.1751. Below the pivot point, a 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1.1707 level could hold out.

On the other hand, a potential recovery would first test the resistance of the previous September low level at 1.1770 before aiming at the weekly S1 simple pivot point at 1.1784.

Hourly Chart

EUR/USD daily chart's review

On the daily candle chart, EUR/USD has passed the support of the 55-day simple moving average at the 1.1800 level. The SMA kept the rate up since September 8.

A passing of the SMA has left the rate with no additional support on the daily candle chart as low as the 1.1707 level, where a 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level is located at.

Daily chart




Traders increase long sentiment

Since Tuesday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange trader open positions were bullish, as 55% of open position volume was in long positions.

On Thursday, the situation changed as 60% of volume was in long positions.

Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were 64% to buy the currency exchange rate.

The orders in that range were 54% to sell on Wednesday.

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