EUR/USD breaks resistance of SMAs

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

The 55-hour SMA failed to push the rate through the support of the weekly S1 simple pivot point, which is located at 1.0788.

Moreover, the currency exchange rate has managed to pass the resistance of both the 55 and 100-hour simple moving averages.

FOMC Meeting Minutes

The European Common Currency traded sideways against the US Dollar, following the FOMC Meeting Minutes release on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate lost 4 pips or 0.04% after the release. The Euro continued trading at the 1.0800 level against the Greenback after the release.

The Federal Reserve released the FOMC Meeting Minutes, where the US policymakers provide in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that their vote on the monetary policy.

According to the official release: "The staff briefing on the first topic noted that in the current environment of low neutral rates, achieving the Committee's dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and price stability would require low policy rates frequently, regardless of the monetary policy strategy and tools chosen. Consequently, policy strategies and tools that help support a stronger economy and anchor inflation expectations at a level consistent with the Committee's objective in a low-neutral-rate environment can help promote financial stability."

Economic Calendar Analysis



Next week there are no notable events that might impact the EUR/USD currency exchange rate. However, some economic calendars have US and EU events listed as high impact.

On Thursday, at 15:30 GMT the US Durable Goods Orders are set to be published. This event has caused moves from 3.0 to 15.1 pips since August.

Moreover, the 15.1 pip move was an anomaly caused by the simultaneous release of other data together with the Durable Goods orders. Without it, the range is from 3.0 to 5.7 pips.

At the same time, the US Preliminary GDP is scheduled to be published. This is the other data set that together with the Durable Goods orders caused a 15.1 pip move. Without the other data, the GDP has caused moves from 6.1 to 11.4 pips.

In general, for there to be a move above ten pips all of the three data numbers should be different from the forecasts in the same way. Either better or worse than expected, all should surprise in the same manner. Such situation is highly unlikely.

Another release on the calendars is the Euro Zone CPI Flash Estimate. It has caused moves from 4.7 to 10.6 pips.

It is a minor one due to the fact that components of this number are being released prior to it. Namely, Euro Zone countries release their data on their own before the combined Euro Zone CPI. The markets more or less already know what is set to be revealed and there is no surprise that could cause a market adjustment.

The week's data is available. Click on the link below to see the historical data tables with the reactions to various events.

EUR/USD hourly chart's review

By the middle of Friday's GMT trading hours, the EUR/USD had passed the resistance of the 55 and 100-hour SMAs and touched the 1.0820 level. This level helped the 100-hour SMA in stopping a pair's surge on Thursday.

In general, if the pair passes the 1.0820 level, it could aim at the 1.0830 level. Note that by the time the rate reaches the 1.0830 mark, the 200-hour SMA should reach this level.

On the other hand, the rate could decline and look for support in the 55 and 100-hour SMAs and the weekly S1 pivot point at 1.0788.

Hourly Chart



On the daily candle chart, the pair continues to drop. It has no technical support as low as the monthly S3 pivot point at the 1.0751 level. The rate's decline could find support in this level.

In the meantime, the daily simple moving averages have been left far above the currency exchange rate near the 1.1060 level. It signals that the pair is oversold.

Daily chart


Swiss traders remain neutral on EUR/USD

Since the middle of Wednesday's trading, the open position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange has been balanced. 50% of volume was long and 50% was short.

Meanwhile, set up pending orders were set to buy, as 58% of orders in the 100-pip range were to buy and 42% were to sell.

On Thursday, 64% of orders were to buy and 36% were to sell.

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