GBP/USD reacts to fundamentals

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD movements were being dictated by the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom. It was set to rule on the suspension of the Parliament done by the Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Meanwhile, note that just before 12:00 GMT the rate bounced and began a surge, which was consistent with an ascending channel pattern.

Economic Calendar



On Thursday, the US Final GDP will be published at 12:30 GMT. This event has caused moves on the GBP/USD from 8.1 to 52.00 pips since June 2018.

Note that during the last two releases the pair moved the least and the most 8.1 and 52.0 pips.

The week will end with the US Durable Goods Orders data release at 12:30 GMT. The event will consist of the release of US Durable Goods Orders and US Core Durable Goods Orders.

This event has caused almost insignificant moves since April, as the GBP/USD moved from 6.5 to 15.1 pips. Due to that it is concluded that this event that is tagged as high impact on economic calendars, is not notable enough to be watched.

GBP/USD short-term review

During Monday, the GBP/USD exchange rate tried to breach the medium-term ascending channel south. During today's morning, the rate continued to test the lower channel line at 1.2425.

From a theoretical point of view, it is likely that a reversal north could occur in the nearest future. A possible upside target is the weekly PP located at the 1.2487 mark. In this case the rate has to surpass the monthly R2 at 1.2459.

However, note that the currency pair is pressured by the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs. Thus, if the given trend does not hold, some downside potential could prevail in the market, and the pair could decline to the weekly S1 at 1.2392.

Hourly Chart



On the daily candle chart, the rate is bouncing around the 100-day simple moving average, which is located at the 1.2487 level.

Take into account that this level is from time to time providing both support and resistance.

Daily chart


Short sentiment remains unchanged



Since the middle of Wednesday's London trading session, 60% of open GBP/USD position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in short positions.

Traders remained short despite the sudden surge occurring at the middle of the day.

Meanwhile, on Monday 66% of orders in the 100-pip range were to buy and 34% were to sell.

The orders had changed on Tuesday, as by the middle of the day 65% of orders were to sell and 35% were to buy.

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