On Monday, the EUR/USD was consolidating just above the monthly pivot point at 1.1220. Although, by the middle of the day, the support of the pivot point was being tested.
In general, the future forecasts scenarios were based on what will happen near the monthly pivot point.
The European Common Currency depreciated against the US Dollar, following the US Employment data set release on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate lost 22 pips or 0.20% right after the release. The Euro continued trading at 1.1235 the level against the Greenback.
Bureau of Labor Statistics released the US ISM Non-Farm Employment Change data, which came out better-than-expected of 244K compared with the forecast of 162K.
According to the official release: "Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing."
US data at the end of the week
This week the data that will impact the EUR/USD will come from the US. There are FOMC Meeting Minutes incoming and a couple of minor data releases.
The FOMC Meeting Minutes will come first, as they will be published at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday. The event has caused moves on the EUR/USD from 6.7 to 28.1 pips since November 2018.
On Thursday, the US CPI and Core CPI data will be published at 12:30 GMT. The data release has caused moves from 13.3 to 28.1 pips since February.
On Friday, the US Producers Price Index will be released at 12:30 GMT. The event has caused moves from 5.3 to 40.4 pips. Although, note that the 40.4 pip move was actually caused by other announcements being made at the same time as the PPI was published.
For more information watch this week's Economic Calendar Analysis
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
At the end of previous week, the EUR/USD currency pair dropped to the support level formed by the monthly S1 at 1.1220. During Monday's morning, the pair was testing the given support.If the given level holds, it is expected, that a reversal north could occur within the following hours. In this case, it is unlikely, that the Euro could exceed the 1.1259/1.1273 range against the Greenback due to the resistance cluster formed by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs, as well the weekly PP.
If the given support level does not hold, it is likely, that the exchange rate could maintain its decline. Note, that the rate could face the support of the Fibonacci 38.20% retracement located at the 1.1200 mark.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the pair has broken the support of the ascending channel pattern. The move occurred due to the pattern already ending its work, as both trend lines of the pattern had changed the direction of the rate three times.
In the meantime, an additional pattern was added. The broken channel is junior to the most recently added one.
In accordance with the current patterns, the rate should decline down to the 1.1170 level, where the lower trend line of the added pattern is located at.
Daily chart
On Friday, 73% of all open position volume on Swiss Foreign Exchange were short. By the middle of Monday's London trading the sentiment was 74% short.
Traders had stuck to their short positions for more than a week. In theory, traders, who are short since June 21 are in the green.
Meanwhile, today, trader set up pending orders in 100-pip range around the pair were almost neutral, as 52% of all orders were set to sell and 48% were to buy.