During Thursday night, high volatility occurred in the market due to the Monetary Policy Statement by the Bank of Japan. The Bank decided to keep the interest rate unchanged.
The USD/JPY currency pair is pressured by the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs, thus, it is likely, that some downside potential could occur in the nearest future.
Census Bureau released the US Core Retail Sales data that came out better-than-expected of 1.2% compared with forecast 0.7%.
According to experts, the US retail sales showed the fastest growth since late 2017. In March, sales for automobiles, petrol, furniture and clothing surged. This advance might signal that consumers tend to spend more due to the healthy job market.
Last week of the month
During this week, there will be a couple of macroeconomic events to watch, avoid or trade.
On Thursday, the US Durable Goods Orders data will be published at 12:30 GMT. This event can cause a move of up to 20 base points.
The data will end on Friday, as at 12:30 GMT the US Advance GDP will be published. This is the top US data set, which has the largest impact on the USD.
Meanwhile, check out the previous data release covers and economic calendar analysis on the Dukascopy Webinars YouTube channel.
USD/JPY short-term daily review
The USD/JPY currency pair skyrocketed to the weekly R2 at 112.37, and dropped dramatically to the 111.85 level.Given that the pair is being pressured by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs, currently located circa 111.90, it is likely, that some downside potential prevails in the market. In this case, the pair has to surpass the weekly S1 at 111.78.
However, if the given resistance does not hold, it is expected, that the exchange rate trades down. A possible upside target is the resistance cluster formed by the weekly and the monthly R1s in the 112.11/112.17 range.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart there is no significant additional information.
It is only worth mentioning that the 200-day simple moving average still was located at the 111.50 level. If the rate declines, this SMA will provide its support.
Daily chart
On Thursday, the Swiss Foreign Exchange sentiment was 64% long.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders were bearish, as 53% of pending commands in the 100-pip range were set to sell.