- The Swiss traders are 64% bearish on the USD/JPY
- Trader pending orders in the 100-pip range are 52% to sell the pair
- FOMC rate announcement is incoming at 19:00 GMT
As the USD/JPY was awaiting the FOMC rate hike, the currency pair continued to decline. Namely, the rate reached the 112.20 mark. If it continues to decline, next support level that can stop it was located at the 111.65 mark.
Latest Fundamental Event
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released US PPI data better-than-expected of 0.1% compared with forecasted 0.00%. Note, that the US Core PPI was released at the same time with the US PPI.
The Producer Price Index for final demand edged up 0.1 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.6 percent in October and 0.2 percent in September. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved up 2.5 percent for the 12 months ended in November.
USD/JPY will be influenced by US data this week
On Wednesday, at 19:00 GMT the event of the week will take place. Namely, the FOMC Statement and the Federal Funds Rate will be published. The Federal Reserve is expected to hike the US central banks interest rate to 2.5% from 2.25%.In theory the event is expected to cause a US Dollar surge, which would beat the top pairs downwards. This year the interest rate hikes have caused moves of at least 40 base points.
On Thursday, all attention will be paid to events in the UK. Namely, at 09:30 GMT the UK Retail Sales are expected to cause a move from 10 to 40 pips.
Afterwards, the Bank of England will announce their rate decision. The event has caused moves from 26 to 97 pips since May 2018.
On Friday the data releases will continue. During the morning hours, namely, at 09:30 GMT the UK Current Account will be published. This event causes moves from 15 to 45 pips.
The week's data will end at 13:30 GMT. At that time the Canadian Retail Sales and GDP data will be published. Simultaneously the US Durable Goods data sets and Final GDP will be released.
The last event is too complex to explain it shortly. Instead, state your questions at the weekly Monday's economic calendar stream at 12:00 GMT.
The above mentioned data release will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics. The event can be watched on our YouTube channel.
USD/JPY short term daily review
During the previous trading session, the US Dollar passed through the support level of the monthly S1 at 112.47 mark to end the trading day near the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level.Most likely, the US Dollar will get retraced by the resistance level of the monthly S1 at 112.47 mark to pass through the support level of the ascending dominant pattern line to trade at the 111.80 level.
On the other hand, during today's US FOMC meetings at 19:00 GMT, the rate could break the resistances most of the technical indicators to trade at the 112.80 level.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart the rate is declining after encountering a resistance line that can be measured by connecting the high levels of the second part of 2018.
In addition, note that the 55-day SMA did not manage to stop the decline. Meanwhile, the 100-day SMA was holding its ground near the 112.35 level. It managed to force the currency exchange rate into a rebound at the start of December.
Daily chart
The trader short sentiment continues to decrease. By the middle of Wednesday's trading 64% of open positions were short.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders, stop losses, take profits and position open orders in the 100-pip range were set to sell the USD/JPY in 53% of cases.