- The Swiss traders are 61% bearish on the USD/JPY
- Trader pending orders in the 100-pip range are neutral
- The rate surges on Monday
By the middle of Tuesday's trading session the rate had pierced trough a strong resistance cluster near the 112.70 mark. Namely, a Fibonacci retracement level together with hourly SMAs was passed.
Latest Fundamental Event
The Federal Reserve releases US FOMC Meeting Minutes where fed officials provide in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.
The minutes said, "Almost all participants expressed the view that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate was likely to be warranted fairly soon".
Busy week for fundamentals
On Tuesday, all attention will be on the Brexit vote. It is set to take away attention from all other events in the financial markets.However, note that on Tuesday the UK Average Earnings Index and Unemployment Rate are set to be published at 09:30 GMT. This data release usually causes a reaction on the GBP/USD from 15 to 30 pips. Although, a reaction just prior to the Brexit vote is unlikely.
Meanwhile, on Tuesday the US Producers Price Index will be released at 13:30 GMT. This data release is set to slightly impact all the pairs that involve the US Dollar. For example, the EUR/USD could bounce around ten pips on the release.
On Wednesday, the US Consumer Price Index change will be published at 13:30 GMT. The event is expected to cause around 20 pip reaction on the EUR/USD.
Note that on Wednesday the biggest move that can be caught will occur on the oil price benchmarks. Namely, at 15:30 GMT the US Crude Oil Inventories data release will cause a sudden move of more than one percent.
On Thursday, the attention will be taken by central bank rate announcements. Namely, at 08:30 GMT the Swiss National Bank will publish their rate and at 12:45 the ECB will publish their interest rate.
The last day of the week will have two notable data releases. At 09:00 GMT the European Manufacturing and Services PMI's created by Markit will be published.
Afterwards, the US Retail Sales data sets will be out at 13:30 GMT. The event might cause a 20 pip bounce.
All of the above mentioned data releases will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics. The events can be watched either on the bank's webinar platform or on our YouTube channel.
USD/JPY short term daily review
The rate has broken a strong resistance cluster at 112.70. it is heading for the weekly PP at 112.90. If that level gets broken, next up the USD/JPY will surge up to the 200-hour simple moving average, which is located at 113.15.On the other hand, the rate might consolidate or retrace downwards after surging. By looking at its previous moves, it can be seen that it does not trade in one direction for long.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart it can be observed that the currency exchange rate's decline was stopped by the support of the 100-day simple moving average at the 112.20 level.
Meanwhile, note that the 55-day simple moving average at 113.00 was providing resistance to the USD/JPY.
Daily chart
The USD/JPY sentiment remains unchanged. On Monday, 61% of traders were short. The sentiment has been short for more than a week.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders, stop losses, take profits and position open orders were neutral on Monday. Previously, the orders were mostly set to buy, indicating that some might take profit.
However, on Monday, the traders resumed their shorting of the pair without close by buy orders.