- The Swiss traders are 65% bearish on the USD/JPY
- Trader pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to buy in 61% of cases
- Busy week for macroeconomic data traders
On Monday, the USD/JPY surged up and broke last resistance levels on the daily chart before the 114.00 mark. However, that does not necessarily indicate that a sharp surge is set to occur. The rate still needs additional support to surge higher.
Latest Fundamental Event
The Federal Reserve releases US FOMC Meeting Minutes where fed officials provide in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.
The minutes said, "Almost all participants expressed the view that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate was likely to be warranted fairly soon".
Busy week for macroeconomic data releases
It is the first week of the month. Already on Monday morning notable data was published in the UK. Namely, the UK Manufacturing PMI was published at 09:30 GMT.Next up traders will concentrate on the UK Construction PMI on Tuesday at 09:30 GMT. The data release is expected to cause a minor reaction on the GBP/USD pairs.
On Wednesday, the ECB President Draghi might impact the EUR/USD during his speech at 08:30 GMT. In addition the head of the Federal Reserve will testify at 13:15 GMT before the congress. However, these events will note be covered by Dukascopy Analytics.
At 13:15 GMT the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is set to be published. This data release will be covered by Dukascopy Anlaytics live on YouTube and Telefision.
Before that, note the UK Services PMI release at 09:30 GMT.
That will not be all on Wednesday. At 15:00 GMT the Bank of Canada will make interest rate announcement. This event has caused the largest fluctuations in the forex markets during 2018. This will be the top event for the month for macroeconomic event traders.
Moreover, the weekly Crude Oil Inventories will be published at 15:30 GMT. This data release causes bounced in oil prices from half a dollar up to ninety cents.
USD/JPY short term daily review
During Friday's trading session, the currency exchange rate passed through the support of the weekly pivot point at 113.47 to end the trading session at the 113.55 mark. On Monday morning, the US Dollar was located between the weekly pivot point and the monthly pivot point at the 113.44 mark.In regards to the near-term future, most likely the US Dollar will surge towards the weekly R1 at 114.07 due to the supports of the monthly pivot point at 113.34 and the 200-hour simple moving average at 113.32.
However, the US Dollar could be resisted by the resistance levels of the 55-hour SMA and the weekly pivot point at 113.47 to push the rate to trade at 113.00 level.
Hourly Chart
The resistance line observable on the daily chart is set to keep the rate from surging. Note that, as it gets passed, the rate could surge up to the 114.00 mark.
Meanwhile, note that the 55-day SMA is set to provide the rate with support at 113.00.
Daily chart
The Swiss Foreign Exchange sentiment remains short on the USD/JPY. On Monday, 65% of traders had open short positions.
In the meantime, there are more buy orders present in the 100-pip range than previously. On Friday, 57% of trader orders were set to buy. By the middle of Monday's trading, 61% of orders were set to buy the pair.
In general, the buying of the USD/JPY by the retail sector continues, as long positions dominate and traders expect a surge.