- SWFX market sentiment is 53% bearish today
- Pending orders in the 100-pip range are 55% to sell
- ECB President is set to host a speech today at 14:00 GMT
On Monday morning the EUR/USD was attempting to pass a strong resistance cluster at the 1.1380 level. The short term forecast is oriented around that level. Meanwhile, take a look at the updated week's economic calendar review.
The European Single Currency appreciated against the US Dollar, following the US Durable Goods Orders data release on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate gained 6 pips or 0.06% during a minute, right after the release. The European Single Currency continued trading at the 1.1400.00 area against the US Dollar.
The Census Bureau released US Core Durable Goods Orders data that came out lower than expected of 0.1 compared with forecasted 0.4%. Moreover, the US Durable Goods Orders data came out together with the US Core Durable Goods Orders with the data lower-than-expected of negative 4.4% compared with the forecasted negative 2.2%.
"New orders for manufactured durable goods in October decreased $11.5 billion or 4.4 percent to $248.5 billion", the U.S. Census Bureau announced today.
Last week of the month is almost empty for fundamental events
This week is the last one of the month. That means that it is bound to be empty in regards to macroeconomic data releases.First notable data release will occur this week on Wednesday. The US Preliminary GDP data will be published at 13:30 GMT. This data release is considered to be the most important among macroeconomic statistics. Although, it causes an increase of volatility around 10 to 20 base points.
On Wednesday, at 15:30 GMT the weekly US Crude Oil Inventories will be published and cause a bounce in oil prices.
On Thursday, the only notable macroeconomic scheduled event, but not a data release, will be the FOMC Meeting Minutes release at 19:00 GMT.
Last, but most important for data release traders, will be the Canadian GDP data release at 13:30 GMT. This event is expected to cause the most volatility that a data release can cause. Although, it will be only observable on Canadian Dollar pairs.
All of these events will be covered live by Dukascopy Analytics. The live coverages will begin ten minutes before the event. They can be watched on the Dukascopy Webinars platform and the YouTube channel.
EUR/USD daily review
The EUR/USD pair on Monday morning continued the surge, which it began on Friday. By the middle of the day's trading session the currency pair had reached the 1.1380 level.At that level three technical levels of significance were providing resistance. Namely, the 55, 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages were located near the 1.1380 level. In addition, exactly at the 1.1380 level the new weekly pivot point was located at.
The pair has two possible future scenarios. It will either break the technical resistance and surge up to the 1.14 level, or it will bounce off of it and resume its decline. In the case of a decline there are no technical support levels as low as the 1.13 level.
Hourly Chart
From the daily chart's perspective the rate is declining in the borders of a junior pattern, which is set to guide the rate to the 1.1300 mark in the near future.
Daily chart
Since Friday the Swiss Foreign Exchange sentiment on the EUR/USD has not changed a lot. Namely, traders are still slightly short, as 53% of open positions were short during Monday morning hours.
In the 100-pip range, on Friday 55% of orders were set to sell. On Monday, there orders had not changed.
In general, traders have not changed either their positions or expectation in the form of pending orders. They intend to short the pair, when this surge ends.