GBP/USD shows Brexit talk volatility

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • The Swiss market is 54% bullish on the pair
  • Pending orders in the 100-pip range are 55% set to buy
  • UK data each morning until Friday

After jumping to the 1.3040 mark the GBP/USD was plummeting by the middle of Wednesday's trading session. The rate passed so many technical levels, that it was expected that eventually the 1.2800 mark will be reached.

Latest Fundamental Event

The British Pound depreciated against the US Dollar, following the UK Average Earnings Index data release on Tuesday at 09:30 GMT. The GBP/USD exchange currency rate lost 9 pips or 0.07% during a minute, right after the release. The British Pound continued trading at the 1.2915 area against the US Dollar.

The Office for National Statistics released UK Average Earnings Index data that came in line with expectations of 3.0%.

The ONS noted "Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 0.9% excluding bonuses, and by 0.8% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier".

Relevant data incoming almost each morning

On Wednesday, there are two data releases. Namely, at 09:30 GMT the UK CPI was published. Afterwards, at 13:30 GMT the US CPI and Core CPI data sets will be released.

Thursday will be the last day with notable data releases. At 09:30 GMT the British will publish their retail sales data. Afterwards, at 13:30 GMT the US statisticians will publish their retail sector data.

For more in-depth analysis of this week's fundamental economic events watch the weekly Monday's Poking the Economic Calendar webinar, which is live each Monday at 12:00 both on Dukascopy telefision and YouTube.
Join the Webinar: Webinar Platform

GBP/USD short term review

As the daily review was done, the rate suddenly dropped just before the mid-day of the London session. Namely, announcements about Brexit deals were beating the currency exchange rate around.

In general, retail traders that trade technical levels, should thread carefully, as any comment from a politician can drastically change the situation.

Hourly Chart


From the daily chart's perspective, the decline of the GBP/USD is considered normal. A fast decline should have occurred, as the simple moving averages, which kept the rate up, were passed on Friday.

In regards to the future, the rate should reveal a new medium scale pattern, which should guide the currency exchange rate lower in the borders of the larger pattern.

Daily chart

Trader is still unchanged

Traders were long during this recent retracement upwards. Namely, 55% of all open positions on the Swiss Foreign Exchange have been long since Monday.

Pending orders in the 100-base point range are bullish, as 55% of them are to buy. Previously, the orders were mostly set to sell on Tuesday.

It can be spotted due to the fact that the open positions remain unchanged while the pending orders bounce around that the pending orders are dominated by possible reversal traders.

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