- The Swiss traders are 58% bearish on the USD/JPY
- Trader pending orders in the 100-pip range are 54% to buy
- Watch the weekly fundamental review
After reaching a new high level at 114.20 the USD/JPY has retreated downwards to look for technical support levels. Although, the rate had failed to find support in the 55-hour simple moving average, indicating that it might fall as low as 113.70.
Latest Fundamental Event
Last week the Bureau of Labor Statistics released US PPI data that came out better than expected of 0.6%, compare to forecasted 0.2%.
"The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.6 percent in October, as prices for final demand services advanced 0.7 percent, and the index for final demand goods moved up 0.6 percent. Prices for final demand increased 2.9 percent for the 12 months ended in October.'' The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday.
A couple of data sets will influence the rate this week
This week macroeconomic data release traders will have a lot to do. Starting from Tuesday, almost each day a notable data release is expected to cause sudden fluctuations of at least ten base points.On Tuesday morning the UK Average Earnings Index and other employment data sets will be published. The data release will occur at 09:30 GMT.
On Wednesday, there are two data releases that are set to be covered. Namely, at 09:30 GMT the UK CPI will be published. Afterwards, at 13:30 GMT the US CPI and Core CPI data sets will be released.
Thursday will be the last day with notable data releases. At 09:30 GMT the British will publish their retail sales data. Afterwards, at 13:30 GMT the US statisticians will publish their retail sector data.
For more in-depth analysis of this week's fundamental economic events watch the weekly Monday's Poking the Economic Calendar webinar, which is live each Monday at 12:00 both on Dukascopy telefision and YouTube.
USD/JPY short term analysis
In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the US Dollar will meet the weekly R1 at the 114.30 mark during the trading session on Monday. The 55-hour simple moving average should support the surge during the day.On the other hand, the yellow metal could move sideways to stay at the 114.00 level during the trading session.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart reveals no additional information. In general, one needs to wait until the rate reveals a new medium scale pattern.
Daily chart
On Friday, 59% of traders were short on the USD/JPY. By the middle of Monday's trading 58% of traders were long on the pair.
In the meantime, 53% of all orders were set to buy the USD/JPY.
Traders are profiting from the decline. Moreover, the lack of buy orders shows that they are not expecting the decline to end soon.