- The Swiss traders are 55% bearish on the USD/JPY
- Trader pending orders in the 100-pip range are 55% to buy
- No important data on Monday
The USD/JPY has clearly moved below the lower trend line of the dominant ascending channel pattern. On Monday, the rate was confirming the previous support as resistance. Due to that reason guidance is to be taken from the hourly chart instead of the daily.
Latest Fundamental Event
On Thursday, the Census Bureau released US Durable Goods Orders data that came out better than expected at 0.8% compared with forecasted negative 1.3%. Moreover, the US Core Durable Goods Orders data came out together with the US Durable Goods Orders with the data lower-than-expected of 0.1% compared with the forecast 0.5%.
The market slightly increased volatility during the data release cover but at the same time, the market did not react on the released datasets at all. The fundamental events cancelled one another out to make the data release pure flat.
No data on Monday
On Monday, there are no data releases scheduled to occur that might impact the financial markets.
Meanwhile, the week's calendar will be reviewed during the weekly Poking the Economic Calendar webinar at 12:00 GMT.
USD/JPY short term analysis
In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the US Dollar will trade below the weekly PP at 112.05 due to the resistance of the 50.00% Fibo and the resistance of the 55-hour simple moving averages.Besides, the resistance of the 55-hour simple moving average could push the rate to trade near the 38.20% Fibo.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart the passing of the supporting trend line can be seen more clearly.
In addition, note that the 100-day SMA at 111.50 was one of the technical reasons for the recent rebound. Moreover, the 55-day simple moving average was located at the 112.00 level. It might impact the rate's movement in the short term.
Daily chart
On Monday, 55% of retail traders on the Swiss Foreign Exchange were shorting the USD/JPY. Previously, 53% of traders were short.
Meanwhile, trader set up orders were slightly bearish, as 51% of all trader set up pending orders were set to sell.
In general, traders are shorting the USD/JPY. However, additional selling by the retail sector is unlikely, as the pending orders are almost balanced.