- SWFX market sentiment is 64% bullish today
- Pending orders in the 100-pip range are neutral
- Wait for the ECB rate on Thursday
The EUR/USD has broken the lower trend line of the ascending pattern and reached as low as the 1.1380 mark. Although, the breaking of a technical level can be explained by the European Central Bank's events today.
There haven't been any data releases impacting the EUR/USD for more than a week. However, the previous one that caught the attention of traders was the Bank of Canada's rate announcement on Wednesday.
The Bank of Canada released CAD Overnight Rate data that came out in line with expectations of 1.75%.
The Bank of Canada noted: "In determining the appropriate pace of rate increases, Governing Council will continue to take into account how the economy is adjusting to higher interest rates, given the elevated level of household debt,".
Almost empty week
In regards to macroeconomic events this week, which might impact the EUR/USD, there are only two days to watch. Namely, Thursday and Friday.
On Thursday, the ECB Main Refinancing Rate will be published at 11:45 GMT. Duakscopy Analytics intend to host a live cover webinar of the rate announcement.
Afterwards, at 12:30 GMT the ECB Press Conference will impact the strength of the Euro. Meanwhile, at the same time as the conference starts the US Duarble Goods Orders will be released. This event will be also covered.
The second day will be Friday. On that day the US Advance GDP will be published at 12:30 GMT. The data release will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics on the bank's webinar platform.
In addition, note that on the same day at 14:00 GMT the ECB President Mario Draghi is set to give a speech. Although, he is set to speak at a non-essential event, and the speech most likely will not impact the Euro's strength.
EUR/USD short term review
In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the currency pair will bounce off the resistance of the weekly S1 at 1.1425 mark to trade downwards to stay at the 1.1380 level during the day.On the other hand, the rate could break the resistance of the weekly S1 at 1.1425 due to today's EU fundamental data sets which could affect the currency exchange rate to trade towards the medium ascending pattern at 1.1455.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart provides no additional information, as the previously used for guidance patterns have been broken. Most likely a new pattern will be spotted in the near future.
Daily chart
On Thursday, traders continued to be long on the EUR/USD. Namely, 64% of traders were long.
Meanwhile, traders no longer were preparing to sell the pair, as 56% of all trader set up orders were set to sell the pair.
This indicates that the traders are preparing to take advantage of a rebound upwards. However, the retail sector will not provide a push upwards or downwards, as their pending orders are set to sell.