- SWFX market sentiment is 58% bullish today
- 59% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to SELL
- Draghi's speech on Tuesday at 07:15 GMT
The EUR/USD has gained more, as it was previously expected. However, after reaching the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level the rate plummeted down to the support levels near the 1.1620 mark.
The European Single Currency depreciated against the US Dollar, following the European Main Refinancing Rate announcement on Thursday at 11:45 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate lost 3 pips or 0.03% during a minute, right after the release. The market did not react much at the release time, but it pushed the rate to go downwards in the following minutes to continue trading at the 1.1620 level.
The European Central Bank released European Main Refinancing Rate announcement that came out in line with expectations of 0.00%.
The European Central Bank says: "The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term."
Draghi's speech on Tuesday is in focus
The third week of the month, as it is usual, will be a quiet one for macroeconomics. Namely, there will be six notable events during the whole week that could be watched by traders.
First note the speeches of Mario Draghi. The first one will be the speech on Tuesday at 07:15 GMT. Another speech will occur on Wednesday at 13:00 GMT.
Second, on Wednesday at 08:30 GMT the UK CPI will be published. This data release will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics on the bank's live webinar platform. Join the platform ten minutes before the event to watch the coverage. On the same day at 14:30 GMT the weekly US Crude Oil Inventories data will be published. As usual, it is expected to cause fluctuations in the 50 base point range on the oil price charts.
On Thursday, all attention of macroeconomic data release traders will be set on the UK Retail Sales data at 08:30 GMT.
The week's macroeconomic releases will end on Friday. On that day the Canadian CPI and Retail Sales data sets will influence the strength of the Canadian Dollar at 12:30 GMT.
EUR/USD short term review
In the short term on Monday morning the EUR/USD was expected to break the resistance of the 55-hour simple moving average near the 1.1660 level. Afterwards, the currency exchange rate should surge up to the 1.1720 level, where the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level together with the weekly R1 are located at.On the other hand, it might be possible that the SMA holds and forces the EUR/USD to trade horizontally until the 100-hour simple moving average provides additional support and pushed the rate higher another day.
Hourly Chart
The large scale ascending pattern, which was discovered on Tuesday, has pushed the currency rate higher. It can be expected that this pattern will continue to guide the currency exchange rate up to the 1.1900 mark.
Daily chart
Swiss trader short term oriented market sentiment remains long. Namely, 57% of all traders have open long positions.
Meanwhile, all of the traders on SWFX have prepared pending trade orders, which might be executed in certain situations. Of all the take profits, stop losses, sell and buy orders 60% are set to sell the EUR/USD.
This means that, if the rate increases volatility, the retail sector will push the rate down, as it dumps its long positions by taking profits or shorting the EUR/USD.
Other, more long term oriented FX brokerages also publish their sentiment data. They can help retail traders with understanding the market expectations for the next couple of months. For example, OANDA brokerage traders are neutralon the pair, and Saxo Bank traders are 56% short.
In general, it can be noticed that the sentiment has not changed much throughout the weekend. Most notable is the fact that Dukascopy traders most likely are profiting from the recent surge. Meanwhile, they have set up sell orders to close their long positions and short the rate, if it ends its surge.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility