- SWFX market sentiment is 59% bullish today
- 54% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to SELL
- US Retail Sales at 12:30 GMT
The EUR/USD traded above 1.17 mark on Friday. It reached this level on Thursday due to the US CPI data release and the comments made by the head of the ECB Mario Draghi.
The European Single Currency depreciated against the US Dollar, following the European Main Refinancing Rate announcement on Thursday at 11:45 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate lost 3 pips or 0.03% during a minute, right after the release. The market did not react much at the release time, but it pushed the rate to go downwards in the following minutes to continue trading at the 1.1620 level.
The European Central Bank released European Main Refinancing Rate announcement that came out in line with expectations of 0.00%.
The European Central Bank says: "The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term."
US Retail Sales will end the week
The week's macroeconomic data releases will end at 12:30 GMT. At that time the US Retail Sales will be published.
The data release will be covered by the Dukascopy Analytics team on the bank's live webinar platform. The event will start at 12:20 GMT.
EUR/USD short term review
In regards to the near future, the pair is set to face the resistance levels above the 1.1710 mark. If this level gets passed soon, the rate would surge up to the next resistance at the 1.1760 mark.On the other hand, if the resistance line holds, the rate will decline down to the support of the 55-hour simple moving average near the 1.1640 level.
Hourly Chart
The large scale ascending pattern, which was discovered on Tuesday, has pushed the currency rate higher. It can be expected that this pattern will continue to guide the currency exchange rate up to the 1.1900 mark.
Daily chart
Swiss trader short term oriented market sentiment remains long. Namely, 59% of all traders have open long positions.
Meanwhile, all of the traders on SWFX have prepared pending trade orders, which might be executed in certain situations. Of all the take profits, stop losses, sell and buy orders 55% are set to sell the EUR/USD.
This means that, if the rate increases volatility, the retail sector will push the rate down, as it dumps its long positions by taking profits or shorting the EUR/USD.
Other, more long term oriented FX brokerages also publish their sentiment data. They can help retail traders with understanding the market expectations for the next couple of months. For example, OANDA brokerage traders are 54% short on the pair, and Saxo Bank traders are 56% short.
In general, it can be noticed that the sentiment has not changed much throughout the week. Most notable is the fact that Dukascopy traders most likely are profiting from the recent surge.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility