- The Swiss market open positions are positioned neutral
- Trader pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to buy in 53% of all cases
- Notable macroeconomic data will be published on Wednesday
The USD/JPY has clearly broken the pattern's dominant resistance. The reason might be the fundamental changes in the currency markets caused by the run from safe currencies like the JPY and CHF to the previously thought to be risky GBP, which has jumped more than once during the previous days due to announcements about a Brexit deal.
Last week was full of US data. For example see the video with the cover of the release of various US employment data sets on Friday.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released Non-Farm Employment Change data better-than-expected of 201k compared with forecasted 191K. Note, that the Average Hourly Earnings and the Unemployment Rate were released at the same time with the Non-Farm Employment Change.
This data release was significant for the United States. The numbers have shown that unemployment rate fell down, which helped unemployed people find more than 200,000 jobs in August. The wage increase was also significant, the largest annual wage increase since 2009. Overall, we can observe that the US economy is doing well.
US Producers Price Index and the Crude Oil Inventories in focus on Wednesday
US data is about to be released on Wednesday. The US Producers Price Index will be out on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. The data release will be a part of the weekly macro release review webinar, which will begin on the bank's live webinar platform at 12:00 GMT.
In addition during that day the US Crude Oil Inventories will also cause a reaction in the financial markets. Namely, oil prices will increase volatility at 14:30 GMT.
USD/JPY short term analysis
In regards to the near-term future, the rate will go upwards to the weekly R1 at the 111.72 mark, which should stop the rate and retrace it back to the pattern during the day. The simple moving averages will try to catch up to the rate to give support.Afterwards, the 55-hour SMA and the upper boundary of the large descending channel may play a role of support to push the rate upwards to pass the weekly R1 at the 111.72 mark or be passed and give way for a fall down to 111.20.
Hourly Chart
The larger pattern, which was stated to be at risk on Tuesday, was broken when the pattern surged to the 111.60 level. Due to that reason first of all the fundamental changes in the market need to quiet down before new large scale patterns are drawn once more.
Meanwhile, note the support of the 55 and 100-day simple moving averages, which have shown themselves in the past as strong enough support levels to set the rate's medium term direction.
Daily chart
The Swiss Foreign exchange retail traders keep bouncing around the 50/50 proportion in their open positions. Moreover, on Wednesday they were almost perfectly balanced, as 50.13% of trader set up positions were long at 10:00 GMT.
Meanwhile, trader set up orders, which could provide momentum to one or the other side, were set to sell in 52% of all cases. Previously, the orders were 50/50 balanced, on Tuesday.
The brokerages with more long term clients were short on Wednesday. Saxo Bank traders are 53% short. Meanwhile, OANDA traders have 54% of open positions at the brokerage short
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility