- SWFX market sentiment is 61% bullish today
- 52% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to SELL
- First notable US data will be on Wednesday
On Wednesday, the EUR/USD was expecting the fundamental data during the middle of the day. However, the data was unlikely going to create large fluctuations in the currency exchange rate. Instead the US PPI, which will be released at 12:30 GMT, will set the short term direction of the pair.
The previous notable data release for the EUR/USD was the US employment data last week. For example read further about the impact of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.
The European Single Currency appreciated against the US Dollar, following the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change release on Thursday at 12:15 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate gained 9 pips or 0.08% during a minute, right after the release. The European Single Currency kept going upwards after the data release to continue trading at the 1.1648 area.
The Automatic Data Processing, Inc. released US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data lower-than-expected of 163k compared with forecasted 195K.
The Dukascopy analysts noticed that the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change has been losing its impact on the market due to a small pip range during previous data releases.
Wednesday has come with US data
On Wednesday, the US PPI data release will occur at 12:30 GMT. The event will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics on the bank's webinar platform at 12:20 GMT.
Moreover, during the day, at 14:30 GMT the US Crude Oil Inventories will be published. The data release each week has caused fluctuations of on average 50 base points.
EUR/USD short term review
The European Single Currency depreciated 0.16% since Tuesday's trading session. On Wednesday morning, the rate passed the support of the weekly PP at the 1.1581 mark..In regards to the near future, most likely, the rate should go downwards due to the resistance of the simple moving averages, which are located above 1.1580 and will not allow the rate to move upwards during the day. The rate might decline down to the 1.1540 level near the monthly PP during Wednesday's session.
In another scenario, the EUR/USD could remain without momentum and remain near the weekly PP at the 1.1581 mark.
Hourly Chart
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency rate revealed another version of the daily chart of the currency pair. If the pattern manages to force the pair into a rebound, it will be used as a guide for the pairs expected surge up to the 1.1900 mark.
Meanwhile, short term traders will benefit more from noting that the 55-day simple moving average is located at the 1.1610 mark, where it provided resistance on Wednesday.
Daily chart
Swiss trader short term oriented market sentiment remains long. Namely, 62% of all traders have open long positions.
Meanwhile, all of the traders on SWFX have prepared pending trade orders, which might be executed in certain situations. Of all the take profits, stop losses, sell and buy orders 60% are set to sell the EUR/USD.
This means that, if the rate increases volatility, the retail sector will push the rate down, as it dumps its long positions by taking profits or shorting the EUR/USD.
Other, more long term oriented FX brokerages also publish their sentiment data. They can help retail traders with understanding the market expectations for the next couple of months. For example, OANDA brokerage traders are 54% short on the pair, and Saxo Bank traders are also 54% short.
In general, it can be noticed that short term traders are mostly long. Meanwhile, longer term oriented traders have already opened enough short positions, which dominate their brokerages.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility