- SWFX market sentiment is 59% bullish today
- 54% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to SELL
- First notable US data will be on Wednesday
On Monday, the EUR/USD broke the pattern of the daily chart. However, the weekly and monthly pivot points provided guidance to traders during the day.
The European Single Currency appreciated against the US Dollar, following the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change release on Thursday at 12:15 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate gained 9 pips or 0.08% during a minute, right after the release. The European Single Currency kept going upwards after the data release to continue trading at the 1.1648 area.
The Automatic Data Processing, Inc. released US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data lower-than-expected of 163k compared with forecasted 195K.
The Dukascopy analysts noticed that the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change has been losing its impact on the market due to a small pip range during previous data releases.
No US data until Wednesday
During the first half of the week there will be no notable data releases occurring in the United States. On Wednesday, the US PPI data release will occur at 12:30 GMT. The event will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics on the bank's webinar platform.
Meanwhile, note that macroeconomic data release traders will have something to do until Wednesday. On Tuesday, at 08:30 GMT the United Kingdom's Average Earnings Index will be published.
EUR/USD short term review
The European Single Currency depreciated 1.06% since Friday's trading session. The currency rate passed the monthly pivot point at the 1.1546 mark during Monday morning hours.The EUR/USD should move upwards to the weekly PP at the 1.1581 and bounce off it to move downwards to stay at the 1.1550 level during the trading day. The support of the monthly PP at the 1.1546 should support the movement for the currency.
In another scenario, the European Single Currency might pass the weekly PP at the 1.1581 to surge to the simple moving averages.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart one can notice that the speculative ascending pattern drawn on Thursday has been broken. Due to that reason there is no larger pattern for the EUR/USD, which would not be speculative. Meaning that it has not been properly confirmed by the trends lines being touched at least two times each.
Daily chart
Swiss retail market trader sentiment, which is mostly short term oriented, was 59% long on Monday. The short term retail traders have not been changing their positions, as most are just riding the surge upwards.
Meanwhile, all of the traders on SWFX have prepared pending trade orders, which might be executed in certain situations. Of all the take profits, stop losses, sell and buy orders 57% are set to sell the EUR/USD.
This means that, if the rate increases volatility, the retail sector will push the rate down, as it dumps its long positions.
Other, more long term oriented FX brokerages also publish their sentiment data. They can help retail traders with understanding the market expectations for the next couple of months. For example, OANDA brokerage traders are 51% long on the pair, and Saxo Bank traders are 52% short.
All of the sentiment information provides us with the understanding of the collective market thought.
Namely, the EUR/USD has still open short term long positions, which have close by stop losses and take profits that can be observed on the SWFX sentiment. Meanwhile, the longer term traders have become more or less neutral.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility