- SWFX market sentiment is 60% bullish today
- 62% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to SELL
- US Employment data sets at 12:30 GMT
On Friday the EUR/USD remained near previous day's levels. However, the fundamental announcements during the day might finally provide the needed push for the rate to pick out a direction.
There hasn't been any fresh EUR/USD impacting data being released for more than a week now. The last data set was the US Preliminary GDP.
The European Single Currency weakened against the US Dollar, following the US Prelim GDP data release last Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. The EUR/USD currency pair lost only 6 pips or 0.05% at the time of the release but the whole drop totalled 10 pips or 0.09%.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the US Prelim GDP data that came better-than-expected. Namely, the GDP grew by 4.2%, compared with the forecasted 4.0%. The data release showed that the US currency should be more demanded than previously though.
US Employment data sets at 12:30 GMT
On Friday, at 12:30 GMT three US employment data sets will be published. They are expected to cause a reaction in the financial markets larger than any other US data release.
Dukascopy Analytics will cover the data release live on the bank's webinar platform. The event will begin at 12:20 GMT.
EUR/USD short term review
The European Single Currency appreciated 0.13% since Thursday's trading session. The currency rate was piercing the weekly pivot point at the 1.16 level during Friday morning hours.The EUR/USD should move upwards to the upper boundary of the medium channel due to the strong support of the 55-hour and 100-hour SMAs, which most likely will support the rate during today's trading session.
In another scenario, the European Single Currency might be stopped by the 200-hour SMA and the additional resistance of the weekly PP at the 1.1640 level and move downwards to the 1.16 level.
Hourly Chart
The watchers of the daily chart have been waiting for a point of reference, which could be used to update the daily chart. The point was available on Thursday, as the recent bounce provided another point of reference.
The result of the additional charting is a long term ascending pattern. If this pattern holds its ground and pushes the rate higher, the currency exchange rate could reach above the 1.1900 level until October
Daily chart
Swiss retail market trader sentiment, which is mostly short term oriented, was 60% long on Friday. The short term retail traders have not been changing their positions, as most are just riding the surge upwards.
Meanwhile, all of the traders on SWFX have prepared pending trade orders, which might be executed in certain situations. Of all the take profits, stop losses, sell and buy orders 59% are set to sell the EUR/USD.
This means that, if the rate increases volatility, the retail sector will push the rate down, as it dumps its long positions.
Other, more long term oriented FX brokerages also publish their sentiment data. They can help retail traders with understanding the market expectations for the next couple of months. For example, OANDA brokerage traders are 52% short on the pair, and Saxo Bank traders are 52% short.
All of the sentiment information provides us with the understanding of the collective market thought.
Namely, the EUR/USD has still open short term long positions, which have close by stop losses and take profits that can be observed on the SWFX sentiment. Meanwhile, the longer term traders have become more or less neutral in the recent trading session.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility